Betting-market makers must act conservatively with game and series prices in the NBA Finals right now because of question marks involving key Golden State Warriors.
— Klay Thompson has suffered a hamstring strain that could inhibit his movement and shooting against the Raptors in Wednesday night’s Game 3 (ABC, 9 p.m.) if he’s even able to play. That’s worth “something” in the point spread. Oddsmakers went up with a soft Golden State -5 ¹/₂ soon after Sunday night’s second game ended. That was soon bet up to -6. But, late Tuesday afternoon, the number dropped down to -5 (and -4 ¹/₂ in spots) when Thompson was formally listed as questionable.
— Kevin Durant has been sidelined for weeks with an injured calf muscle. There’s optimism he’ll be able to return for Friday’s fourth game. He’s likely worth at least two points on game-by game point spreads because of his impact. VSiN’s estimated “market” Power Ratings tabulated by Jonathan Von Tobel (“The Edge”) and I deduced that adjustment when Durant first left the lineup. His return would obviously make the Warriors an even bigger favorite than they already are.
This likely will be a fairly one-sided series if Thompson’s going to be fine and Durant’s about to return. But it’s a potential seven-game barn burner if Thompson’s going to be hobbled or absent and Durant chatter is just a smoke screen.
For Wednesday’s resumption, professional bettors will try to extricate the most value with a defensive underdog in a bounce-back spot. Intangibles and history generally favor a “zig zag” visitor plus the points. This particular visitor is tough as nails, and unlikely to go down without a fight with two days to recover from a loss.
There weren’t early nibbles on Toronto +6 in the first 24 hours of betting. But, then a flurry of activity at +6, at +5¹/₂, and even some more at +5 once early reports about Thompson weren’t optimistic.
The current series price at William Hill shows Golden State laying -280 (risk $280 to win $100 that the Warriors win the Larry O’Brien Trophy, or anything in that ratio). Toronto is +240 (risk $100 to win $240 on a series shocker). Golden State entered as the superior side, and now has home-court advantage after breaking serve Sunday night.
Obviously, those odds don’t suggest a seven-game barn burner. The composite intelligence of the marketplace believes Thompson and Durant are both likely to jump back on the warpath.
With current lineups, defensive intensity has been the linchpin factor in this battle of talented powers. Toronto held Golden State to 47 percent on 2-point shots while forcing 16 turnovers its victory. Golden State held Toronto to 43 percent on 2-point shots while forcing 15 turnovers.
Keep your eyes on the point spread. Market moves likely will anticipate headlines about player availability. Money knows first!