The Blue Jays have had 15 of their 25 home games go under the total so far this season and with the Padres heading north of the border for a Friday tilt, expect more of the same.
The Blue Jays have Trent Thornton on the mound and he has pitched better than his 1-4 record would indicate, especially recently. The Blue Jays are 4-1 in his past five starts as he has a 3.16 ERA over that span and opponents are hitting just .180 off of him.
The Blue Jays have a .235 average against left-handed pitchers, which is what Padres starter Joey Lucchesi is, but hit a home run in 2.1 percent of their at-bats against lefties — so it is a lot of soft contact.
Lucchesi has done a great job of limiting damage this season by allowing 0.9 home runs per nine innings and 2.4 walks per nine. He has been a slight victim of bad luck as his record is 3-3 and he has a 4.28 ERA. Nevertheless, his fielding independent, a metric used to show what a pitcher’s ERA would be if he had league average fielding, is a 3.33.
The Padres offense has been stagnant recently, averaging 3.25 runs per game in their past 12 contests and must face Thornton as well as a bullpen that fifth in the MLB in ERA with opponents hitting just .211 against it.
In a ballpark that has been trending Under this year coupled with two of the bottom seven teams in the MLB in batting average, runs should be at a premium Friday.
The play: Blue Jays vs. Padres, Total Under