The Nationals’ Max Scherzer is 2-4, but has still been dominant despite the record and should be involved in a solid pitchers’ duel on Friday with Cole Hamels and the visiting Cubs.
Scherzer’s 3.64 ERA is over-inflated given that he has not had a very supportive team around him. His fielding independent, which measures what a pitcher’s ERA would be with league-average fielding of balls in play, is a 2.24. That is the best among all qualified starting pitchers in MLB.
Hamels has been very reliable with a 3-0 record, 3.08 ERA and a 1.067 WHIP. His 6.5 hits per nine innings is a career low, and he’s supported by a top-10 bullpen in terms of ERA.
With the best starting pitcher in terms of raw numbers going against a team in the Cubs that ranks third in overall team ERA, this appears to be a good spot to take an Under despite a low total.
The play: Cubs-Nationals, Under 7¹/₂ runs.