An inside look at how the 145th Kentucky Derby will shape up:
1. War of Will (15-1)
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Current form: Won the Rebel by a measured two lengths to make it three straight. But gate issues and a wide trip resulted in his first loss on dirt in the Louisiana.
Worth a wager? Willed his way to impressive streak. Does best running early so it’s all about the break after drawing the dreaded rail. If he does, he may hang around and finish sixth.
2. Tax (20-1)
Trainer: Danny Gargan
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Current form: Game photo-finish winner in the Withers. Stayed at Aqueduct to run in the Wood Memorial and got a garden trip but still placed second to Tacitus.
Worth a wager? This is Danny Gargan’s first Derby horse. The Wood was there for the taking. He didn’t take it. Doubtful he rebounds. Putting him 12th.
3. By My Standards (15-1)
Trainer: Bret Calhoun
Jockey: Gabriel Saez
Current form: Took an impressive maiden breaker to the Louisiana and got up to win by a surprising 3/4 at odds of 22-1. Peaking at right time.
Worth a wager? Took advantage of War of Will’s troubled trip and became a serious player at Louisiana. If he stays clean he can make a run for seventh.
4. Gray Magician (50-1)
Trainer: Peter Miller
Jockey: Drayden Van Dyke
Current form: Graydar-sired gray has pulled a rabbit out of his hat once from eight tries. Fast-closing second in the UAE Derby, contested at a similar distance.
Worth a wager? Not going to be fooled by big finish at Dubai. Sure the connections are just happy to be in Kentucky. Folds the tent like the AAF. Not last, 19th.
5. Improbable (5-1)
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Current form: Juvenile campaign saw him go 3-for-3. Blemishes this year. Gained the front in the Rebel but failed to hold on. Held off by stronger Omaha Beach in the Arkansas.
Worth a wager? Omaha Beach isn’t here, and he can move forward off the effort in his absence. One of three who can win for Baffert. Irad Ortiz on; blinkers off. Fills out supers, fourth.
6. Vekoma (15-1)
Trainer: George Weaver
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Current form: Labeled “small” and “awkward” he nonetheless made it a career 3-of-4 by taking the Blue Grass by a handy 3 3/4 over a speed-favoring Keeneland course.
Worth a wager? George Weaver on strange running style: “I’d rather have a horse that moves like him, then a horse that moves perfectly but can’t run.” Love him, but have him ninth.
7. Maximum Security (8-1)
Trainer: Jason Servis
Jockey: Luis Saez
Current form: Mr. Perfect is 4-for-4. Stepped up in the Florida Derby and drew away to win by by 3 1/2, leading at every call. Brings top fig to the gate.
Worth a wager? Leisurely pace at Florida raises red flags. But with Omaha Beach out he may be in control early. Can he go the distance? We believe so. A wire-to-perspire winner.
8. Tacitus (8-1)
Trainer: Bill Mott
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Current form: Late kicker ran by Tax in the Wood Memorial after storming from out of a 10-length cloud to win the Tampa Bay Derby. Tapit gray appears ready to tackle 10 furlongs.
Worth a wager? Bill Mott’s lazy morning worker shows up in the afternoons. Overcame trouble to run down Tax. Jose Ortiz keeps him clean and times a late run to land fifth.
9. Plus Que Parfait (30-1)
Trainer: Brendan Walsh
Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.
Current form: Oh no! The UAE winner! Finished a football field behind War Of Will then traveled to Dubai and hung on to win by three-quarters in what may have been a weak edition.
Worth a wager? In a word: No! Ricardo Santana subs for Jose Ortiz who knows better. Falls apart faster than Zion Williamson pair of Nikes. 18th.
10. Cutting Humor (30-1)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Mike Smith
Current form: His backers saw nothing funny about his no-show as odds-on-fave in the Southwest. Rebounded to eke out a victory in the Sunland Derby.
Worth a wager? Experienced a perfect trip in the Sunland. With Omaha Beach out, Mike Smith who won the Triple Crown last year with Justify, became available and landed here. Midpack, 11th.
13. Code of Honor (12-1)
Trainer: Shug McGaughey
Jockey: John Velazquez
Current form: Stretch runner took advantage of a wicked pace to win the Fountain of Youth but could not get to Maximum Security, who got away with slow splits in Florida Derby.
Worth a wager? Smallish colt is bred for Turf but has held his own thus far. Needs it fast up front. If he gets it, Hall of Famer Johnny V will move up. Up for eighth.
14. Win Win Win (12-1)
Trainer: Mike Trombetta
Jockey: Julian Pimentel
Current form: Correct! He has three but really hasn’t beaten anyone of note. Rallied late to make the board in the Tampa Bay Derby then Blue Grass.
Worth a wager? Got in more trouble than Lenny Dykstra in the Blue Grass and still managed to win the place photo, points he needed to make the Derby cut. Figs say no. We say 13th.
15. Master Fencer (50-1)
Trainer: Koichi Tsunoda
Jockey: Julien Leparoux
Current form: Not much to discuss. Japanese-bred colt ran fourth then second in a pair of stakes and somehow made it to Churchill Downs.
Worth a wager? Shocks the world if he wins. Gets as much support at the windows as Mayor Bill de Blasio gets for his presidential run. If you’re on the fence jump off. Last of 20.
16. Game Winner (9-2)
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Current form: Winter-book fave after winning all four starts as a 2-year-old. Narrowly defeated twice this year (Rebel/Santa Anita Derby) due to inefficient trips.
Worth a wager? Morning line favorite after Omaha Beach scratched. Baffert charge was beat a half-length by stablemate Roadster at Santa Anita. Rosario stays on, gets him home third.
17. Roadster (5-1)
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Current form: Breezed by a tired Game Winner to take the Santa Anita Derby. Has won two in a row and the Quality Road gray may relish the 1 1/4 miles.
Worth a wager? Breathing issues slowed his progress last year. Undefeated since. Geroux subs for Mike Smith, who took off to ride Omaha Beach. We have Baffert running 2-3-4. Close second.
18. Long Range Toddy (30-1)
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Jon Court
Current form: Improbable winner of the Rebel when he ran down Improbable. Extended longer in the Arkansas Derby and tired badly.
Worth a wager? Toddy may have long-range issues after wilting at Oaklawn. Expectations fall, price is up. A leg weary 16th.
19. Spinoff (30-1)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Manny Franco
Current form: Sat off the pace, took charge when given his cue but was out-kicked by By My Standards in the Louisiana. Crushed optionals by 11-plus previously.
Worth a wager? Could not hold off the winner at Louisiana. Should have. Johnny V comes off. Manuel Franco rides for Pletcher. 10th.
20. Country House (30-1)
Trainer: Bill Mott
Jockey: Flavien Pratt
Current form: Record reads 1-for-6 after continuously missing the break. Rushed from 10 horses back to show third in the Arkansas.
Worth a wager? Slow starter leaves from far post and will have to catch more proven three-year-olds. Not a good formula. 15th.
21. Bodexpress (30-1)
Trainer: Gustavo Delgado
Jockey: Chris Landeros
Current form: Maiden was cleared for takeoff when Omaha Beach dropped out. Made exactas sing when he ran second to Maximum Security in the Florida Derby at 71-1.
Worth a wager? Tough spot when you’re asked to break maiden in the run for the roses. No. On the bubble entry comes home 17th.