Virginia-Texas Tech: Defense will crown 2019 NCAA champions

Defense is going to win another NCAA championship. Which defense will cash tickets for bettors in Monday night’s college basketball showdown featuring No. 1 Virginia and No. 3 Texas Tech (CBS, 9:20 p.m.)?

Opening lines were up moments after Saturday’s Final Four finished. Offshore early birds posted Virginia -1 ¹/₂. First money hit Texas Tech. Las Vegas books either opened at Virginia -1 or -1 ¹/₂. based on how they anticipated their clientele were likely to bet.

Oddsmakers anticipated another defensive struggle with a low opening Over/Under of 120¹/₂. These are two of the top five pace-adjusted defenses in the country. Under money dropped the number to 119. Sharps were happy to go 120 or more out of the gate given expectations for another very slow game featuring brick walls who know how to get stops.

Movement on the side and/or total isn’t out of the question between now and tipoff. The public may be tempted to bet a hyped ACC power at a cheap price against a “blue-collar” opponent that feels overdue to run out of gas. Though, a quick look at Saturday’s key stats and recent form suggests Texas Tech may be the better “playoff style” March Madness team.

— No. 1 Virginia (-6) beat No. 5 Auburn, 63-62:

This point spread rose to as high as Virginia -6 ¹/₂ in some spots on news that Auburn stars Jared Harper and Bryce Brown were battling the flu. A slow pace (just 59 possessions per team) helped those two contribute (and Auburn bettors cash their tickets).

No reason to rehash the dramatic and controversial ending. Virginia did win two-point shooting 56-50 percent, and 3-point shooting 37-29 percent … but had to survive a third straight nail-biter. At the end of regulation, Virginia has been only four points better than No. 12-seed Oregon, dead even with No. 3-seed Purdue, and one point better than No. 5-seed Auburn. The Cavaliers will need to lift their game against the best defense they’ve seen in the postseason since losing to Florida State in the ACC semifinals.

— No. 3 Texas Tech (+2) beat No. 2 Michigan State, 61-51:

A bit of a surprise that the public didn’t embrace the inexpensive favorite in game-day betting. Sharps and recreational players alike loved Texas Tech at +3, and still saw value at +2 ¹/₂. And they were right.

Texas Tech won 2-point shooting 46-35 percent, and 3-point shooting 39-29 percent. This was also a very slow wrestling match, with 60 possessions per team.

The Red Raiders have faced a much tougher gauntlet than the Cavaliers. Tech just scored outright upsets over No. 2-seed Michigan, No. 1-seed Gonzaga, and No. 2-seed Michigan State. Most impressively, Tech won the second halves of those stiff tests by scores of 39-28, 40-32, and 38-30. Impressive offense and defense in consecutive crunch times.

If both teams bring their most recent form, Tech is arguably a slight favorite. But, if Tech finally runs out of gas trying to reach peak defensive intensity for the fourth time in less than two weeks against a brutal schedule, patient Virginia will make the Red Raiders pay.