Betting

Final Four lines: Making sense of the NCAA betting market

By
Jeff Fogle, VSiN
Published April 6, 2019, 5:06 p.m. ET

With such a long lead time between the final buzzer in the Elite Eight and the opening tip of Saturday’s Final Four, college basketball betting market observers have had no trouble deciphering sharp intent.

No. 5 Auburn vs. No. 1 Virginia (6:09 PM, CBS)

First numbers up offshore were either Virginia -5 or -5¹/₂. Sharps nudged any fives up higher in short order. This despite the fact that underdogs had dominated against the spread in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight with an 8-4 record against the spread (that was 9-3 ATS at the end of regulation) … and in full awareness that Auburn had been on fire as an underdog in recent weeks.

A quick recap of how the Tigers have roared in this price range: Auburn (+4¹/₂) beat Tennessee 84-64 for the SEC Championship (covering by 24¹/₂), Auburn (+5¹/₂) beat North Carolina 97-80 in the Sweet 16 (covering by 22¹/₂ ), Auburn (+4¹/₂) beat Kentucky 77-71 (in OT) in the Elite 8.

Sharps knew that … and still bet Virginia at -5, without any sort of buy back on Auburn when +5¹/₂ was painted everywhere for days. Even with Virginia failing to cover in a tight win over Oregon last Thursday, and needing a miracle to cover in overtime against Purdue last Saturday.

Why is “shaky” Virginia laying so many points to red-hot Auburn? Sharps believe the style matchup favors the Cavaliers. Virginia has a good chance to slow Auburn way down, forcing the Tigers to compete with 3-pointers in a high-pressure environment inside an NFL dome with an odd shooting backdrop.

If you believe the traditional theory that “defense and rebounding wins championships,” Virginia brings the superior defense to the floor (ranked No. 5 nationally in Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted defensive efficiency, compared to No. 29 for Auburn) and out-rebounded Oregon and Purdue last week, 73-62, while Auburn lost the battle of the boards to North Carolina and Kentucky, 81-73.
Sharps will take Auburn at +6 if they see it (meaning it would take Virginia by seven to beat them), but their lack of interest in the Tigers at +5¹/₂ is telling.

No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 Texas Tech (approx. 8:49 PM, CBS)

This one has been see-sawing between Michigan State -2 1/2 and -3 all week. A preponderance of sharps have made it clear that they like Pomeroy’s No. 1 defense Texas Tech when getting the full three. This should be a hard-fought slugfest, and every half-point matters in potential nail-biters.

Though, there are some math-minded pro bettors that believe Sparty’s No. 9-ranked defense can come close to canceling out Tech. Michigan State has the more dangerous offense (No. 5 compared to No. 28 in Pomeroy), and the superior rebound rate (MSU No. 6, Tech No. 118 at teamrankings.com), which helps bring in some informed money on the favorite at -2¹/₂ .

We’ll have to see if public money on game day puts extra weight on either side of that see-saw. Recreational bettors generally prefer betting favorites that seem affordable, which suggests there’s a good chance the market will settle closer to three than 2¹/₂. Dog lovers will continue to hit Texas Tech +3 hard if it becomes more readily available before tip-off.