NCAA Sweet 16 lines: Gauging Friday’s March Madness betting market
Sharps are expecting competitive basketball in Friday’s Sweet 16 action in the NCAA Tournament. Professional bettors have had all week to take positions on favorites in advance of heavy public game-day betting. No nibbles!
If you’re new to market analysis, when sharps like a favorite at an early price, they will bet very quickly knowing the point spread will likely rise before tipoff. Squares (Vegas parlance for the general public) prefer betting favorites on game day, and don’t care so much about the number. Pro bettors would rather lay -5 when they see it, than risk having to lay -5.5 or -6 later in the week. Recreational bettors lay the 5.5 or six and hope for a blowout.
In Friday’s March Madness games, sharps either stayed on the sidelines when numbers first went up or bet the dogs right away. Let’s run through market action in tipoff order.
No. 3 LSU (+6) vs. No. 2 Michigan State (CBS, 7:09 p.m.): Offshore outliers went up first at the Spartans -6.5, only to see LSU interest with the “hook.” This point spread was a solid six the next few days. The public often supports favored head coaches with strong Dance histories. Educated money wasn’t interested in Tom Izzo this high, suggesting they’re looking to fade him if the line goes up (or settle for LSU +6 if it doesn’t).
No. 5 Auburn (+5) vs. No. 1 North Carolina (TBS, 7:29 p.m.): Openers were either UNC -5 or -5.5. Only money on red-hot Auburn came in with the hook. The Tigers tore through the SEC Tournament, then routed Kansas last weekend. Auburn has made at least a dozen 3s in all six postseason games thus far. Sharps weren’t interested in jumping in front of that rampage. They’re hoping public money on media-darling North Carolina will pull the line back up to 5.5 (or even six).
*No. 4 Virginia Tech (+7) vs. No. 1 Duke (CBS, 9:39 p.m.): First numbers up offshore were typically Duke -7.5 or -8. Underdog money hit the board hard, setting up a solid seven through the week. Duke is not seen by informed bettors as a blowout team versus strong defenses. If the public bets the bounce-back off the fortunate win over UCF, sharps will spend more on the Hokies at +7.5 or more.
No. 3 Houston (+2.5) vs. No. 2 Kentucky (TBS, 9:57 p.m.): Sharps definitely weren’t going to bet Kentucky until they knew the status of injured PJ Washington. Most stores opened at the Wildcats -2.5 and stuck there until some initially positive news came out midweek. Monitor this one through the day Friday for the latest. Betting markets usually know important news before there’s a press release!
All told, no support for Michigan State, North Carolina, Duke nor Kentucky through the prime sharp betting window. This tells us pro bettors are looking to bet LSU, Auburn and Virginia Tech at more favorable prices, and are waiting for a medical update before the final song plays on the Sweet 16 dance card.
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