Last week in my Alliance of American Football best bet, I wrote it’s important not to have “favorite teams” in sports betting because it can cloud our objectivity — and then I went ahead with the San Antonio Commanders for the third straight week and they routed the Atlanta Legends, 37-6.
Well, this week is when we really put that axiom to the test, as I’m now fading the Commanders. The Salt Lake Stallions are visiting San Antonio as 5¹/₂-point underdogs, and I have this line closer to a field goal.
The Stallions aren’t as bad as their 2-4 record. They beat the Memphis Express, 22-9, last week to get that second victory, but had San Diego beaten the prior week before losing, 27-25, on a last-second field goal. Two weeks ago, they lost, 20-11, to the Orlando Apollos, the AAF’s best team, which beat San Antonio by eight earlier this year. They also lost, 12-9, to Birmingham, so the Stallions really are a few plays away from having the same record as San Antonio.
Based on San Antonio’s Western Division-leading 4-2 record and aforementioned three-game winning streak, I wouldn’t be surprised if the line gets bet up to 6 or more by kickoff (so I advise waiting and, of course, shopping for the best number), but I’ll go on record with the number available Friday morning at William Hill.
The play: Salt Lake Stallions, +5 ¹/₂.