So many times when it comes to sports handicapping, we hear about the teams to bet on. While there are certain teams that can help your bankroll immensely, that means there are other bets out there that can do the opposite.
Sometimes a hot fade is even more profitable than betting on a team on a hot streak, and with 353 Division I college basketball teams, there are certainly some teams and spots that have made you money if you have been betting the other side.
Duke has been a profitable team if you have been betting them against the spread this season at 17-13. While betting the Blue Devils every game has been nice, the real money has been on the Under in their games. Totals in general are normally shaded a bit higher since casual bettors like to root for higher-scoring games rather than games full of empty possessions and shot-clock violations.
With guys such as RJ Barrett, Cam Reddish, and Zion Williamson, it gets lost to most people that the Blue Devils rank seventh in the country in defensive efficiency. Pair that with Duke ranking 327th in the country in 3-point shooting percentage and 242nd in made free-throw shooting percentage, and it has led to the Over in Duke’s games being 8-20-2. The only two teams in the country that have played a higher percentage of their games under the total are Arkansas and New Hampshire.
Home and road splits are another angle to look at, and a few traditional SEC powers have not had the home-court advantage you might expect. Florida and Vanderbilt both rank in the bottom 16 in the country in home cover rate, with Florida 3-12 and Vanderbilt 5-13 against the spread in their home confines. While these are the SEC leaders of a home non-cover charge, six teams in the conference have covered 40 percent or fewer of their home games.
On the flip side, there are some teams that have not been getting the job done on the road so far this season, the biggest being Kansas. For the first time in 15 years, the Jayhawks will not be taking a piece of the Big 12 crown back to Lawrence, Kan., and it has mostly to do with their road struggles. The team has tumbled all the way to 65/1 to win the national championship at William Hill.
The Jayhawks are 3-8 straight up in road games this season and 2-9 against the spread. The against-the-spread mark is tied with New Mexico for the worst road cover rate in Division I.
Issues on the road could lead to some pause with Virginia Tech, as well. The Hokies have been looked at as a team from the ACC that can make a March run and have 80/1 odds of winning the national title at William Hill, but they are 3-6-1 against the spread and 5-5 straight up. In comparison, the teams with road cover percentages of 80 or greater this season are Virginia, Fresno State, North Carolina, LSU, Houston, Mississippi, and Central Michigan.
There also are some teams that perform much differently as favorites than they would otherwise. The prime example of this is Xavier. The Musketeers have not fared well against the spread this season as a favorite, at 3-10-1. Of teams that have been a favorite more than five times this season, that is the fifth-worst cover rate in the country. As an underdog, Xavier has been far from great, but at 6-7-1, it’s not necessarily causing you to have pause and put the Musketeers on a fade list.
Because it is now March, lines get tighter with more neutral-site games and squads that finished the regular season with similar records squaring off. Looking for some of these key splits and which teams fail to excel can sometimes be the most profitable trends to back.