LAS VEGAS — For most of us, sports betting is a daily exercise in trying to predict that Team A is going to kill Team B or that Team C is going to upset Team D. We mostly lay 11 to win 10 and hope we pick more than the 52.3 percent winners required to come out ahead against the bookmaker.
Professional sports bettors are doing that as well, but they’re always on the lookout for market inefficiencies they can exploit. With so much information available to bettors (and oddsmakers), these can be harder to find now than in the past as lines are tighter. But they do exist, and the key is to get on them before everyone else does and the opportunity dries up.
Here’s a recent example. You can decide if it’s worth it to still jump in or if you missed the gravy train.
I first heard about the hot Over trend with NHL first-period bets after the start of the New Year. VSiN hosts Mitch Moss and Pauly Howard were discussing on their “Follow the Money” morning show with Vegas-based handicapper Alex B. Smith how certain teams were having amazing runs, including the Lightning having an 18-game Over streak and the Blackhawks having a 15-game Over streak. There were five teams well above the rest of the league hitting 67 percent or better on first-period Overs more than halfway through the regular season (not a small sample). The reasons given were that offenses were going all out to grab early leads (which also leads to counter attacks), the downsizing of goalie equipment and an overall decline in goaltending quality.
I was skeptical because I hear about hot trends/systems like this all the time. Usually they are just anomalies that correct themselves pretty quickly (usually right around the time you hear about them), or often it’s just a matter of time before the oddsmakers adjust and take away the edge.
However, when I took a closer look, I realized that while game totals were on the rise (typically 6 and 6.5 goals as opposed to the old days when totals were usually 5 with the occasional 5.5), first-period Over/Under lines were stuck in a time warp at 1.5 goals. I really believed that the standard first period would be more fairly priced at 2, yet the books were adjusting only by increasing the vig.
To break even, you need to hit 52.3 percent at -110, and 60 percent at -150. However, the top teams (Blackhawks, Lightning, Blue Jackets, Sharks, Penguins — which we dubbed the #FollowtheMoney5) were hitting at 66.7 percent, which gives you an edge at anything below -200. So I dove in with a parlay betting strategy, which had the dual effect of increasing profits if the trend stayed hot while minimizing risk.
I mostly parlayed based on starting time (if two teams were playing at 7 p.m. ET, I would parlay those together and then group other games starting at 9 or 10 p.m., etc.). I would “key” games in which our preferred teams were playing each other (similar to what you might do in horse racing with an exacta or trifecta key). I knew this strategy was especially effective but didn’t know how much until Howard discovered a stat revealing the #FollowtheMoney6 (now adding the Devils, who had moved ahead of the Penguins) was 27-3 (90 percent) to the Over when facing each other (or 54-6 if counting two wins/losses per game).
Last week was a very interesting study in this phenomenon. The books really started to jack up the juice, often into the -200s and even to -300 in some cases while some books even went to Over 2 goals! But we kept cashing, especially with the Devils-Penguins and Lightning-Blue Jackets both coming through last Tuesday and the Sharks-Penguins on Thursday before the Sharks-Blue Jackets finally failed on Saturday, dropping the combo plays to 30-4 (88.2 percent).
Even the one “losing” day last Friday when the top teams went 0-2 wasn’t a disaster if you just lost one unit with a parlay. And Sunday ended the week nicely with the Blackhawks going Over (despite playing the Stars, the top Under team) as well as the Sharks Over.
So, what do you think? With the sure-to-be-increasing vig, we’re not going to be making as much when hitting our parlays as we were before. I’m continuing until we hit the proverbial wall, but decide for yourself if you’re still willing to jump in.