On paper, Gonzaga playing Pepperdine at home is a mismatch and likely will be cause for a double-digit loss for the Waves, but there is money to be made a lot of times on the spreads of these games and this appears to be one of those cases.
Pepperdine has covered 10 of its last 15 and has done so while getting 14 points or fewer on the spread in every game. Gonzaga, meanwhile, had covered 11 of its past 14 games prior to its road tilt with Loyola-Marymount, but now enters this game having not covered spreads of -21¹/₂ and -16.
Gonzaga is the country’s No. 1 team in offensive efficiency by a pretty wide margin, but Pepperdine enters this game making a higher percentage of its 3-point attempts than Gonzaga. The Waves also are used to playing in track meets as they rank 91st in the country with regard to possessions per game while the Bulldogs come in at No. 68.
Though the 12-15 season record for Pepperdine is less than appealing, this team has lost by more than 10 points just twice this season with its largest margin of defeat coming by 15 against Oregon State.
While Gonzaga is a high-powered team that should win this game, it has led to over-inflation and value on the Waves.
THE PLAY: Pepperdine, +28.
Greg Peterson handicaps college basketball in VSiN’s Point Spread Weekly. Sign up for a one-week free trial at vsin.com/free.