Apple iPhone outlook has nowhere to go but up: analyst

Apple’s iPhone problem is bad — but it’s also as bad as it’s going to get.

That’s according to an influential tech analyst, who says Wall Street’s current forecasts for iPhone sales are overly pessimistic, despite a warning from the company earlier this month that cited sluggish demand in China.

“The current market consensus on 2019 iPhone shipments [160-180 million units] is much lower than our estimation,” said Ming-Chi Kuo, an analyst at TF International Securities. “We maintain our forecast of 188-192 [million] units for 2019 iPhone shipments.”

The forecast — which comes with the condition that it depends on the trade war between the US and China not getting any worse — would see iPhone sales “generally flat” year-over-year, according to Kuo.

Apple is slated to report earnings after the bell on Tuesday.

Kuo’s note mirrored recent comments from Chief Executive Tim Cook, who earlier this month blamed weak Chinese demand for the company’s stratospherically priced devices.

Apple’s latest iPhone XS and XS Max models start at $999 and top out at $1,449.

Kuo admitted that “demand for new models in China and emerging markets is lower than expected” but added that he expects appetite for the iPhone to increase in the second quarter.

Not everyone is willing to give Apple the benefit of the doubt yet. Gradient Investments president Michael Binger told CNBC Monday that they are underweight on the stock and know what to expect from Cook’s note.

“I truly think that the posture right now is to be underweight or not own Apple,” he said.

Weak sales of Apple’s new line of iPhones — particularly the cheaper iPhone XR — have haunted the company since the release of the devices in the fall.

The Cupertino, Calif.-based company has seen its stock battered in recent months as numerous parts and chip suppliers for the iPhone have slashed sales forecasts.

The tech giant has gone as far as assigning members of its marketing team to work full-time on boosting sales, and has upped the amount it is willing to pay for devices traded in toward the purchase of a new iPhone.

Apple shares were trading down 1.1 percent Monday afternoon, at $156.10. The company will release its earnings report Tuesday after the bell.