Providence and Texas, on paper, look quite similar. Each team has three losses, each has a points differential between 7.9 and 8.4 and each surrenders between 67.8 and 66.5 points per game.
Yet Texas opened as close to a double-digit favorite.
What makes this matchup in Austin (9 p.m., ESPN) more intriguing is it’s a road game for Providence, which defeated Boston College in overtime as an underdog in its only true road game this season.
This line could be because of recency bias with Texas coming off a close home win against Purdue and a 98-60 drubbing of Grand Canyon. Before that, the Longhorns were 2-6 against the spread, with two outright home losses against Radford and VCU. In both games, Texas closed as a favorite of at least 10 points, similar to the opening number of 9¹/₂ for Friday’s contest.
Alpha Diallo is leading Providence in points, rebounds, and assists. At 6-foot-7, he will present a big issue to Texas’ Kerwin Roach, assuming that is the matchup.
Providence comes in the more efficient offense, ranked 82nd among Division I teams in points per possession, while Texas is 152nd.
Providence is 30th in the country in 3-point shooting percentage and is going up against a team that has been downed by teams far worse from beyond the arc.
VCU and Radford shot a combined 12-for-46 from distance in their upset wins. If the Friars can hit anywhere near their season percentage, it will force Texas, ranked 219th in 3-point percentage, to play above-average just to win, let alone cover.
The play: Providence, +8¹/₂.