Should you bet teasers in college football bowl games? In terms of real value, the answer is emphatically NO!
If you’re new to football betting this season, you’re going to be tempted. The option of moving a point spread six points in your favor seems like a steal. And, if you had been thinking about getting cute with favorites on the first day of bowl action this past Saturday (“new” bettors are always looking for ways to bet favorites), you’re already regretting sitting out.
Tulane, Utah State, Fresno State and Appalachian State all covered their regular point spreads as favorites (by 13 ¹/₂, 32, 5, and 25 points), and Georgia Southern landed near its number with a two-point win. That would have been a clean sweep for favorites at “teased” lines that had been adjusted six points.
Unfortunately, it doesn’t always work out that way. And teasers in college football are almost always a bad bet with favorites or underdogs because those points you’re “buying” aren’t worth what you’re paying.
Think of it this way. Imagine there’s going to be a defensive struggle in bad weather, and the market has settled on an extremely low Over/Under of 30 points. We’re dealing in the world of fantasy to set the table. In THAT scenario, getting an extra six points is great. That’s one-fifth of the expected total points scored. Real value. You can justify teasing your preferred side.
But as the totals rise to 40, or 50 points … you can see what the problem is. You’re picking up a much smaller fraction of expected scoring volume. College football totals regularly go up in the 60s, and sometimes 70s. Alabama-Oklahoma, in one of the national semifinals, started the week at 81.
Sportsbooks don’t cut you any breaks. “Hey, Charlie … since that Over/Under is 63 points … we’re going to go ahead and give you eight points instead of six. You wanna tease ‘Bama-OU? We’ll give you a dozen.” Doesn’t happen. Sportsbooks know they’re getting the best of it whenever anybody bets a six-point college teaser.
Though, it should be noted, Tuesday’s Boca Raton Bowl matching Northern Illinois and Alabama-Birmingham (ESPN, 7 p.m.) is right on the cusp of being a real nominee. Northern Illinois entered the week as a 2 ¹/₂-point underdog against an Over/Under of 43.5. That’s a defensive struggle … and teasing the dog would cross both the 3 and the 7. Some statheads might make a case for NIU +8 ¹/₂ as one leg of a teaser. What future bowl would they pair it with?
That’s the rub. The “hidden vigorish” you pay on teasers is that you have to find multiple options, and then SWEEP them. Teasers are hard enough to hit in the NFL with more consistent talent and a tighter range of Over/Unders.
There will be occasional days where teasing bowl games work. Long term, it’s a losing strategy. And people who play favorite will really hate it when the inevitable upsets start.