LAS VEGAS — In early September, Khalil Mack was sent from Oakland to Chicago in a trade that signaled the turning point for two teams. The Raiders sunk to somewhere near rock bottom, while the Bears started a surprising rise to the penthouse.
The Mack deal proved to be a winner for a lot of bettors who played NFL regular-season win totals. The Bears were a popular play, with their win total moving from 6½ to 7. The public also cashed by fading the Raiders under 8 wins.
“The Raiders ‘under’ is a pretty big loser,” William Hill sportsbook director Nick Bogdanovich said of his book’s prospects.
Few bettors were fooled by the hype surrounding Jon Gruden’s return to Oakland. The Raiders’ rebuilding project has resulted in a 3-11 record and three first-round draft picks.
The Bears’ 10-win season and NFC North title were tougher to predict. Chicago’s success is because of a combination of factors — first-year coach Matt Nagy installed an innovative offense and Mack’s pass-rushing presence gave the defense a strong identity.
“I definitely have upgraded the Bears the most from the beginning of the season,” said Don Best Sports veteran oddsmaker Kenny White, who has Chicago No. 5 in his power rankings, up about 20 spots from the preseason.
Bogdanovich said the bettors beat the books by playing the Bears, Chiefs, Chargers, Colts and Saints over their win totals. Not that the losses are devastating, though.
“It’s nothing major. There are no six-figure decisions or anything,” Bogdanovich said.
With two games remaining in the season, win-total results are decided for 18 of the 32 teams. A look at the overachievers, underachievers and those still up in the air:
Overachievers
The Saints moved to 12 wins Monday night, and there are three 11-win teams in the NFL — Chiefs, Chargers and Rams. All four have topped their projected win totals. Of that group, Kansas City (8½) faced the lowest hurdle. Patrick Mahomes led the Chiefs to their ninth win on Nov. 11.
William Hill opened the Bears’ win total at 6½ and posted Chicago at the longest odds (10-1) to win the NFC North. The Texans (10-4) started 0-3 before putting together a nine-game win streak to top their total of 8½. The Colts (8-6) started 1-5 before Andrew Luck got hot. Indianapolis is 7-1 in its past eight games to go over 6½. Miami’s miracle win over New England sent the Dolphins (7-7) over 6½.
Underachievers
The Bears’ rise coincides with the fall of the other three teams in their division. The Packers (5-8-1) are only halfway to their total of 10, the Vikings (7-6-1) will not get to 10 and the Lions (5-9) will come up short of a win total that was either 7½ or 8.
Green Bay and Jacksonville (4-10) rank as the league’s biggest flops. The Jaguars are nowhere near their win total of 9. Aaron Rodgers’ slump is a surprise; Blake Bortles’ demise is not. The Panthers (6-8) joined this group with a loss to the Saints on Monday night, making it certain they will not push on their total of 9.
Philadelphia and Pittsburgh each picked up wins as underdogs in Week 15. Still, the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles (7-7) and Steelers (8-5-1) were posted at 10½ wins.
The Falcons (5-9; 9½), 49ers (4-10; 8½), Cardinals (3-11; 6) and Raiders round out a group of 10 teams certain to fall short.
To be determined
The Patriots, usually as automatic as an ATM, are no longer spitting cash at bettors. New England (9-5) needs to finish with home victories over the Bills and Jets just to push its consensus win total of 11 — and the bet is already decided for those who played over or under 11½.
Buffalo (5-9) hosts the Dolphins in Week 17 with its total of 5½ to 6 hanging in the balance. The Jets (4-10) need an unlikely sweep of the Packers and Patriots to get over 5½ and push on 6.
Baltimore, Dallas, Seattle and Tennessee are each sitting at 8-6 and all had posted win totals of 8. The Ravens, road underdogs to the Chargers this week, might need a Week 17 home win against the Browns to get over the total.
The Redskins (7-7) have clinched at least a push on their total of 7 and will need to beat the Titans or Eagles to go over.
The Browns (6-7-1) faced a win total ranging from 5½ to 6, so their game against the Bengals (6-8; 6½ to 7) is key to the decision for both teams.
The Broncos (6-8; 7 to 7½) and Buccaneers (5-9; 6) each need a win or two to rescue ‘over’ bettors. The Giants (5-9) seem doomed to stay under 7 with games remaining at Indianapolis and against Dallas.