Once a season, usually around this time of the year, I like to break down the current futures odds in the NFL and see if I can’t find some value to pass along. (Odds to win the Super Bowl are from William Hill):
AFC contenders
Chiefs (9/2): The Chiefs’ odds have dropped quickly after the Kareem Hunt suspension, but the question I have to ask is realistically, how much will the situation actually affect Andy Reid’s club? Kansas City still put up 40 points without Hunt on Sunday. This wager potential might come down to weather at Arrowhead Stadium in the postseason. On par to get home-field advantage throughout right now, can the Chiefs offense thrive in adverse weather conditions when it needs to? With a weakened running game and essentially a rookie quarterback, I am going to pass on the Chiefs as chalk in the AFC.
Patriots (13/2): Right now the Patriots are right where they seem to always be — in the hunt at the top of the AFC. Is this team as good as its predecessors? Probably not, as it is out-gaining opponents by only 0.01 effective yards per play on the season against one of the league’s easiest schedules. However, they still have Tom Brady, and the weaponry surrounding him is as good or better than any of the recent teams. The Patriots will be very tough to beat in any big-game playoff scenario, even if they are on the road. This is my second pick for getting to the Super Bowl from the AFC.
Chargers (17/2): If there is any team in the AFC that would be considered a sleeper, it would be the Chargers. They have flown under the radar all season long, and seem to be galvanized to get it done this year. Philip Rivers has never been to a Super Bowl and is certainly deserving. Leading the league currently in effective yards per play differential, it means the Chargers are basically the NFL’s best team on a play-by-play basis. I believe this team can win on the road or at home, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they eventually formed an all-L.A. Super Bowl in a couple months. Let’s go with the Chargers as my AFC pick right now.
Steelers (10/1): Pittsburgh seems to be a hot choice as a team that can unseat New England atop the AFC. The Steelers have a big-play offense and get after the opposing quarterback as good as anyone in the NFL. That said, after losing at home to the Chargers this past Sunday night and yielding a big lead in that game, I’m crossing Mike Tomlin’s team off my list. The road to get to Atlanta will be too tough having to likely win a pair of road games to get there.
Texans (15/1): A nine-game winning streak has put the Texans in the conversation, but Bill O’Brien’s team feels like a “maybe next year” team to me.
Ravens (75/1): Baltimore is a potential sleeper option for me, but only if quarterback Joe Flacco is healthy. We’ve seen this team beat longer odds in the playoffs than this before.
NFC contenders
Saints (13/5): The Cowboys seemed to have drawn up a blueprint for stopping the Saints offense. There were so few play attempts made down the field in that game by Drew Brees. Home-field advantage would be a huge deal for this team in the postseason, so much so that I don’t see the Saints coming out of the NFC without it.
Rams (13/5): Last year, I called the Rams a year or two away from reaching elite status in the NFL. This year they are my pick to win both the NFC and Super Bowl LIII. The main reason is coach Sean McVay, as he seems to have a bond with his team that is unmatched among the other competitors. It feels as if the Rams would run through a wall for him. Oh, they also have the best running back in the league in Todd Gurley, and the best defensive player in Aaron Donald. At 13/5, the risk-reward is debatable, but still, this is my pick.
Bears (15/1): Like many other football fans, I’m struggling with how seriously to take the Bears. I think we’ll know more after Sunday’s game at home versus the Rams, but my guess is Chicago followers won’t be happy with what they will have learned. If the Texans are the team that is a year or two away in the AFC, I would say the Bears are that in the NFC.
Cowboys (22/1): Dallas is recognized as a contender in the NFC and has scored some impressive wins of late, but I’m not a dink-and-dunk Dak Prescott fan when it comes to big games. Even if Dallas wins the NFC East and gets a home playoff game, I’m not sure we’ll see the Cowboys in the divisional round.
Seahawks (40/1): Seattle is a team that is coming on;doing the little things to win football games. There is also a championship pedigree, although it shrinks more and more each season. I could see this team winning a playoff game in the wild-card round, but that’s it. Not enough weapons.