Wednesday night’s NIT Tip Off semifinal showdowns at Barclays Center are a reminder of the great college basketball “connectivity” handicappers can use to their advantage.
Those matchups (ESPN2, 5 p.m. and 7:30 p.m.) are No. 5 Tennessee of the SEC versus Louisville of the ACC, and No. 2 Kansas of the Big 12 versus Marquette of the Big East.
All four combatants are very likely to matter in their conferences and the postseason. Current computer ratings suggest Kansas is Final Four material in the NCAA Tournament, Tennessee is Sweet 16 or Elite Eight quality (slightly less optimistic than the current AP poll), Marquette has Round of 32 potential, and Louisville will at least be in the discussion for a bid even if the program has been trending in the wrong direction.
Neutral-court showcases are ideal for evaluating tournament potential. This holiday week features several TV tourneys designed to promote power schools and power leagues. You’ve probably been watching Duke in the Maui Invitational on TV since Monday. Maybe you went out to watch the Legends Classic in person at Barclays on Monday and Tuesday (St. John’s, California, Temple, and VCU).
As we noted this past weekend, college football doesn’t have much in-season connectivity involving top contenders. So there’s still some uncertainty even now in the final stages of the season how various powers might match up. Would one-loss Georgia or Oklahoma be favored over undefeated Notre Dame? Is Alabama a field goal better than Clemson, or a touchdown?
Sharp bettors can take advantage of what college basketball is offering, even when they don’t bet. Here are some questions to ponder as you scout Wednesday’s twinbill, and then Friday’s final round (also on ESPN2) where Wednesday’s winners and losers pair off:
- Does Tennessee really deserve its high poll ranking? The Vols are just 1-1 ATS this season, with the non-cover a 66-53 win in Knoxville, Tenn., over Georgia Tech laying -15 1/2. Great to have two cracks to evaluate this question versus quality opponents in this event.
- Does new Louisville head coach Chris Mack (formerly with Xavier) have the talent to get the Cardinals back to the NCAAs after an NIT flameout last season (lost 79-56 at home to Mississippi State in the quarterfinals).
- Were unfixable weaknesses for Marquette exposed recently in a stunning 96-73 loss at Indiana as a 5-point underdog? That was the largest market miss this season for any of Brooklyn’s four guests. Marquette’s soft defense allowed a 74 percent shooting mark on 2-pointers to the Hoosiers.
- Can Kansas stay focused for 40 minutes in a big game, or 80 minutes over a “dance weekend” simulation? Worth asking because the Jayhawks blew a big midgame lead in a 92-87 win over Michigan State in Indianapolis, then failed to cover high spreads after slow starts in two home games. In Lawrence, Kansas only beat Vermont 84-68 as a 22-point favorite, then Louisiana 89-76 as a 21-point favorite.
Enjoy the Tip Off tourney. As you watch, think about how the market is currently perceiving these teams based on game-day point spreads … and how you would rate these teams on the eye test.
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