It’s five games into the college football season, and Notre Dame has yet to land within a touchdown of the closing point spread.
The volatile Fighting Irish enter Saturday night’s nationally televised game at Virginia Tech (ABC, 8 p.m.) as the No. 6 team in the nation.
That’s despite barely beating Ball State and Vanderbilt as double-digit favorites. Here’s a look at how Notre Dame has fared this season:
- Notre Dame’s covers: by 9¹/₂ points as a mispriced home underdog to Michigan, by 23 points at Wake Forest, and by 16¹/₂ points versus Stanford (the latter two after switching quarterbacks from sluggish Brandon Wimbush to sharp passer Ian Book).
- Notre Dame’s non-covers: by 26 points over Ball State, and by 9 points against Vanderbilt. It was those two non-covers that got Wimbush benched. Not because ND backers were losing money, but because the offense was playing so far below reasonable expectations that something had to be done. So far, so good.
Virginia Tech has shown some volatility of its own. You surely heard about the shocking loss to Old Dominion that missed the spread by 41¹/₂ points. But, the Hokies have two victories that beat expectations by more than three touchdowns — covering by 28 points in a rout of Florida State and by 23¹/₂ points last week at Duke, led by backup quarterback Ryan Willis.
Given extremes, how can you confidently handicap a game like this? It’s great to see both teams moving in the right direction, despite the small sample sizes. Conveniently, both new quarterbacks did lead their teams to road wins versus physically comparable ACC foes. Let’s check out the boxscores:
Notre Dame 56, Wake Forest 27
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Virginia Tech 31, Duke 14
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Stat dominance existed for the Irish in what was supposed to be a much tighter game. Book was poised in terms of avoiding turnovers. The Hokies were poised and productive, but less explosive. That by itself is enough to tell you why Notre Dame is favored.
Missing from the equation is that Book followed the Wake Forest win with a statistical rout of much more respected Stanford. Notre Dame won that one 38-17, with a yardage edge of 550-229 on 9.5 to 4.5 yards-per-play.
Within our limited sample size, Notre Dame looks to be more than one touchdown better at this site. Handicappers must determine if Book will become turnover prone in the first loud, hostile environment of his college career, or if Willis will be pressured into mistakes if he’s forced to play from behind against an opponent much more physically intimidating than Duke.
If Notre Dame and Book impress again, we’ll be discussing the undefeated Irish a lot this season as they try to crash the Final Four party.