One of the hidden keys to successful handicapping throughout the 2018 NFL season will involve beating the market to get a clean read on the back end of the NFC.
There’s no debate about who the top Super Bowl threats are in that conference. Below that are several teams such as the Seahawks and Bears (who meet on ESPN’s “Monday Night Football” tonight) who could finish anywhere from 4-12 to earning a wild-card berth.
That dynamic hung over Sunday night’s Giants-Cowboys game and is just as present here. Until some cream rises and some rocks sink, handicappers and bettors will be trying to separate the contenders from the pretenders in a logjam of mediocrity.
Complicating matters:
- There are new head coaches for the Bears, Lions, Cardinals and Giants. Coaching changes introduce volatility that can wreak havoc with perceptions and stat models.
- There are newly acquired veteran quarterbacks for the Redskins (Alex Smith) and Cardinals (Sam Bradford); and still-developing second-season starters for the Bears (Mitch Trubisky) and 49ers (Jimmy Garoppolo). Performance norms won’t be known for a while with those four teams.
- There’s relative “staleness” for the Seahawks, Cowboys and Panthers. How do you know for sure when players need a change in leadership?
- Oh, and the Buccaneers’ regular starting QB, Jameis Winston, isn’t even eligible to play until the end of the month. Out of the blue, his backup had one of the greatest games in league history last week!
Monday’s matchup features “relative staleness” visiting “new head coach” and “second-season starting quarterback.” Seattle definitely seems to be climbing slowly down the ladder after back-to-back Super Bowl appearances a few years ago. And last week’s three-point loss at Denver was much uglier than it looked:
Seattle stomped in the stats
- Yardage: Denver 470, Seattle 306
- Yards-per-play: Denver 6.5, Seattle 5.6
- Third-down conversions: Denver 33%, Seattle 17%
Seattle stayed close with the help of a cheap 15-yard touchdown drive. Three Seahawks turnovers normally would have caused a road blowout, but Denver also turned the ball over three times. Important market influences read box scores.
The Bears impressed the market in a close loss at Green Bay last week. Sure, blowing a big lead was a gut punch that left a mark. Building a big lead in the first place is a step in the right direction from the prior administration.
Do you believe you already know enough to pick the right side Monday? Place your bet! The rest of us will be scouting for clues to help predict Bears-Cardinals and Cowboys-Seahawks next week. These NFC question marks are going to keep banging into each other. Make sure you’re listening to their answers.