Here comes the Season of Sam.
The Jets begin the 2018 season with renewed hope in the right arm of rookie quarterback Sam Darnold. Coming off of consecutive 5-11 seasons, the Jets are still in the midst of rebuilding, but the selection of Darnold with the third overall pick in this year’s draft has energized the entire organization.
Todd Bowles is back for Year 4 to oversee the team and try to steer the Jets back to the playoffs for the first time since 2010. A postseason berth still feels like a long shot, but there is reason to anticipate an improved team this year.
After tearing down the roster in 2017, general manager Mike Maccagnan has begun to restock it. Besides Darnold, the Jets also signed top cornerback Trumaine Johnson to a $72.5 million contract in March. They also added veteran linebacker Avery Williamson, running back Isaiah Crowell and wide receiver Terrelle Pryor to the locker room.
Those veterans should complement and help develop the young core the Jets are building. Safeties Jamal Adams and Marcus Maye had impressive rookie seasons. Leonard Williams is the last man standing from the Jets’ vaunted defensive line of a few years ago and expects to be a dominant player this year.
The schedule begins with a tough early stretch of three games in 11 days. That will be a test for Darnold to see how quickly the rookie can adjust to what NFL defenses are throwing at him. After that initial burst, the Jets have some favorable matchups in the middle of the season before ending the year with a December stretch that features three teams that made the playoffs last year (Titans, Bills and Patriots) and two that expect to contend this year (Texans and Packers).
The success of the Jets’ 2018 season will not ultimately be defined by wins and losses, though. It will be all about Darnold. The 21-year-old is being looked at as the savior of the franchise. How will he hold up under that kind of scrutiny?
Offense
The Jets have a new offensive coordinator, quarterback, running back, tight end and center. They have revamped last year’s group, which had some good moments but overall was not explosive.
Jeremy Bates takes over the play-calling duties from John Morton, who was fired in January. Bates will be tied at the hip with Darnold, who beat out Josh McCown and Teddy Bridgewater in training camp. Darnold has shown he has innate ability that can’t be taught. He feels the pass rush, is good at moving inside the pocket and is accurate. The future is bright for Darnold, but the present might be rocky as he adjusts to life in the NFL.
Helping Darnold out will be a backfield of Crowell, Bilal Powell and eventually Eli McGuire, once he recovers from the broken foot he suffered on the first day of training camp. Powell has proven to be a reliable back for the Jets during his seven seasons with the team. There is no reason to expect a drop-off from him. The Jets signed Crowell from the Browns to a three-year, $12 million contract in March after he ran for 853 yards last year with Cleveland. Crowell is a durable back who can give the Jets some strength between the tackles.
The wide receivers are an interesting group. There is no true No. 1, but the Jets have four good NFL receivers. Robby Anderson, Jermaine Kearse, Quincy Enunwa and Pryor give the Jets a strong quartet. All four have had an 800-yard receiving season in their career. Enunwa’s return from neck surgery will be a huge boost.
The tight end position features several unproven players who all showed potential in the preseason. Rookie Chris Herndon has impressed the Jets and could have a big role. Jordan Leggett, Neal Sterling and Eric Tomlinson will all see time at tight end.
The biggest weakness on offense is the line. The Jets brought in Spencer Long to replace Wes Johnson at center, but that was the only personnel change they made. They are hoping new line coach Rick Dennison can make a difference for a group that struggled last year. It will be key for Darnold to have some extra time and not take too many hits. That will be up to this group. Right guard Brian Winters and left tackle Kelvin Beachum both dealt with injuries in training camp, which bears watching.
Grade: C
Defense
The Jets’ defense has the potential to be a strong unit, but is going to need to find someone to rush the passer.
The lack of a pass rusher was glaring this summer as Bowles tried player after player in the outside linebacker spot and did not find anyone who could make an impact. It might be on Bowles and defensive coordinator Kacy Rodgers to get creative with their defenses and find ways to pressure the quarterback with blitzes.
While the pass rush needs help, the secondary has already gotten it. Johnson gives Bowles a true No. 1 cornerback, which he has lacked during his time with the Jets. Johnson is a ball hawk who had seven interceptions in 2015. He should help the Jets become more of a playmaking defense, forcing turnovers. The addition of Johnson moves Morris Claiborne to the No. 2 spot and Buster Skrine to the nickel corner, their more natural spots.
Adams and Maye made an impact immediately as rookies, but the Jets need an even greater impact from them in Year 2. Adams did not have an interception last year, which he vowed will change this season. Maye had offseason ankle surgery, but he looks like he is healthy again.
The defensive line has a different look with longtime defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson now playing for the Packers. Williams had only two sacks last year after registering seven in 2016. He got to the quarterback last year, but was often a fraction of a second late to get the sack. Williams needs to find a way to get into the backfield quicker.
Playing alongside Williams will be rookie Nathan Shepherd, a third-round pick out of Fort Hays State who has impressed the coaches. Shepherd showed off his strength in the preseason and looks like he could be a very good run-stuffer. Steve McLendon is back at nose tackle, but he missed most of training camp with a leg injury. Henry Anderson and Mike Pennel provide some depth along the line.
At inside linebacker, Williamson joins the Jets after four years with the Titans to replace Demario Davis. Williamson is known as a tackling machine who can sometimes struggle in coverage. The Jets could be susceptible to running backs catching passes out of the backfield.
Darron Lee is next to Williamson and it is a big year for the 2016 first-round pick. Lee has been up-and-down in his career and there is a question whether the Jets should commit to him long-term. Lee needs to take a step forward this season for the Jets defense to realize its potential.
Grade: B-
Special teams
The Jets will lose a game this year because of special teams play. Write it down.
This unit remains a work in progress (to put it nicely). Coming out of training camp, no one grabbed either return job and they were basically having tryouts for kicker a week before the regular season.
Pencil in Andre Roberts as the punt returner, but that could change. Rookie Trenton Cannon got most of the work as the primary kickoff returner, but he fumbled in Week 3 of the preseason and while fast, still has plenty to learn.
The Jets picked up Jason Myers in late August after Cairo Santos failed to get on the field with an injury. Myers is an experienced kicker, but he was let go by the Jaguars last year and the Seahawks cut him in training camp. This could be a spot the Jets go through a few guys during the year.
Punter Lachlan Edwards has steadily improved and averaged 46.6 yards per punt last year.
The Jets have improved their depth from last year, but they still don’t have a deep enough team to have standout special teams players. Losing Rontez Miles this offseason to a knee injury hurt.
Grade: D
Coaching
Bowles got a two-year extension at the end of last year and is back for Year 4. It would be easy to say this is playoffs-or-bust for Bowles, but Jets CEO Christopher Johnson has resisted giving any playoff mandates. More likely, this season will be about Darnold’s development and whether there is optimism about 2019 when the season ends. If there is, it will make little sense to get rid of Bowles and start over with a new coach.
The Jets change offensive coordinators more frequently than most people change their clothes. Morton was fired after one year and now Bates gets a crack at Mission Impossible — getting the Jets’ offense moving. Bates is an intense coach who runs the West Coast offense. He has been a quarterbacks coach for most of his career and should help Darnold.
The Jets also brought in Dennison to coach the offensive line and work with Bates as the run game coordinator. The veteran coach has installed a zone-blocking scheme that might cover up some of the warts on the offensive line.
Kacy Rodgers is Bowles’ right-hand man. The two must figure out a way to generate a pass rush this season without a star rusher in the building.
Grade: C
Two-minute drill
Most important offensive player: No surprises here, Sam Darnold holds the key to this season and will be the most important Jet for a long time to come. It is reasonable to expect some early struggles from the 21-year-old rookie quarterback, but the Jets will be counting on seeing steady improvement from him as the year goes on.
Most important defensive player: The Jets did not sign cornerback Trumaine Johnson expecting an average player. Johnson needs to be a shutdown corner to make Todd Bowles’ defense effective. If Johnson can take away the other team’s top receiver, Bowles will be freed up to be more creative with blitzes and finding ways to get to the quarterback.
Rookie to watch: Tight end Chris Herndon could have an impact for the Jets immediately. The fourth-round pick from Miami had some impressive days in training camp. The Jets need help at tight end and Herndon could be the guy to step up and take the job.
Star on the rise: Wide receiver Robby Anderson nearly had 1,000 yards last season and he could hit the mark this year. The third-year receiver has shown he can do more than just catch the deep ball. He looked like a more complete receiver last year, catching 63 passes for 941 yards and seven touchdowns.
Biggest coaching decision: The biggest decision is behind Todd Bowles. That was who to start at quarterback. Now that he has picked Sam Darnold, his next biggest decision is how much leash to give Darnold in the offense. Does he hold him back early on and make him a game manager or just turn the rookie loose? The development of Darnold will be the key to the whole season for Bowles and his future.
Don’t be surprised if: The defense struggles early in the season. The Jets have some new pieces at every level of the defense. It could take a while for this group to jell. The group has a chance to be good later this season, but there might need to be some patience from Jets fans.
Sure to make fans grumble: The special teams look like they could be a disaster. The Jets struggled in the preseason with special teams, and it is hard to see how they will get better in the regular season. They could not find a punt or kick returner they fully trusted in the preseason and were still looking at kickers as the preseason ended. It will not be shocking if special teams cost them at least one game this year.
Can’t miss em
Sept. 10 at Lions: This will be the beginning of the Sam Darnold era, which the Jets hope will be a long, successful one. We’ll learn plenty about the Jets as they face new Detroit coach Matt Patrcia and a decent Lions team.
Oct. 21 vs. Vikings: This will be the Kirk Cousins Bowl. The quarterback rebuffed the Jets in March, choosing to take less money to play for the Vikings. Then he rubbed it in during a documentary that showed him telling his wife how they would use the Jets to get the Vikings to give him more money. That might have annoyed some Jets. They can take it out on him here.
Nov. 25 vs. Patriots: The Jets have a tough slate of games in December. For those games to have any meaning, it would help for them to beat their rivals for the first time since 2015. No matter how bad the Jets have been through the years, they often play close games with the Patriots, especially at home.
Prediction: 5-11
Jets fans have reason to be optimistic about the future with Sam Darnold, but the present could have some rocky moments as he adjusts to the NFL. So, dream about the cap space the Jets will have in the offseason and enjoy watching Darnold. Better days are ahead … just not quite yet.