Free agency went poorly for players last year, and — if anything — results and trends during the 2018 season could make it worse this coming winter.
The one refuge from the dollar-pinching was for relievers. Front offices ignored a long-held philosophy that no players were more volatile and fungible and, thus, not worth significant investment than relievers.
Clubs had become more open to paying for bullpens since starters were throwing fewer innings and, especially, because postseason games had become a race to get relievers in early and often. That set-up/middlemen still tend to be the cheapest commodity on the market only made clubs bolder to forage in this area while mostly remaining disciplined or dismissive of other positions.
Twenty-one free agent relievers signed multi-year contracts. Some have gone well — such as Steve Cishek with the Cubs, Hector Rondon with the Astros and Tony Watson with the Giants. But the 10 biggest deals have generally not gone well, making me wonder if teams will now retreat to their volatile, fungible comfort zone.
The Rockies signed the three largest relief contracts, totaling $104 million for Wade Davis, Jake McGee and Bryan Shaw. Each signed three-year deals. Shaw (6.42) and McGee (5.98) had the majors’ two worst ERAs (minimum 50 relief appearances) entering the weekend and Davis (4.99) was fifth.
Brandon Morrow (two years, $21 million) received the fourth-largest deal. He pitched well as the Cubs’ closer. But the concern with him was health, and Morrow (biceps tendinitis) has not pitched since mid-July.
Philadelphia’s Tommy Hunter (two years, $18 million) has been good, but not as good as last year and missed the first three weeks of the season. Seattle’s Juan Nicasio (two years, $17 million) took a 6.00 ERA to the disabled list (knee inflammation). Minnesota’s Addison Reed (two years, $16.75 million) is having his worst season. Houston’s Joe Smith (two years, $15 million) has seen a diminishment in his groundball rates and effectiveness. And rounding out the top 10 is Anthony Swarzak (two years, $14 million) who has been hurt or awful for the Mets.
The upcoming relief market also will not be boosted that the three largest relief deals belong to: Aroldis Chapman (five years, $86 million), who is on the DL with a knee ailment and has battled command issues (perhaps because of the knee). The Dodgers’ Kenley Jansen (five years, $80 million) had a recurrence of a heart ailment. The Giants’ Mark Melancon (four years, $62 million) has been disabled each of the past two years with elbow problems and has lost his closer job.
The pedigree of free agent relievers this offseason will be far better than last. Boston’s Craig Kimbrel will lead the class and while being excellent he has a touch of Davis about him — is he just about to begin a fade? — since he is walking more, striking out fewer and being more susceptible to homers than in his most dominant phase. Cleveland’s Andrew Miller has gone to the DL twice with knee tendinitis. His teammate Cody Allen is having his worst season. Zach Britton has battled command issues upon his return from a torn Achilles tendon.Front offices are competitive. These competitive folks will find a new non-relief beachhead to sink their disposable dollars, especially because even with some of the starry potential of this anticipated class having been unplugged, it is still expected to be an enticing group.
Nevertheless, the failure of the top-paid relievers from last offseason is just one of several items that could lead to further free-agent salary suppression. Such as:
- The fear of paying older players is being verified on the field. Just four players 35 or older have a Wins Above Replacement (WAR) of 2.0 or better (basically major league average). It was three last year. As recently as 2011-12, it was 10 each year and it was a record 16 in 2003. Draw your own conclusions what has occurred to cause this.
- Especially among position players many of the large, long-term deals have become albatrosses: Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, Robinson Cano, Jacoby Ellsbury, Chris Davis. Does that create greater long-term caution with the two players expected to sign the biggest contracts — Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. In particular, do teams worry that Harper struggled so much this season in his walk year and would he put a similar burden on himself as a, say, $400 million player? His Nationals probably will not make the playoffs despite his presence. The same might be true of the Dodgers even after obtaining Machado — who has been good, not great, for L.A.
- Does the at least poor starts by a bunch of late-signing players who ultimately did not get what they hoped for financially by trying to wait out the market — think Lance Lynn, Neil Walker, Greg Holland, Logan Morrison, Lucas Duda, etc. — convince the non-star free agent to jump on an unappetizing deal earlier in the offseason to avoid a disruption to normal offseason preparation?
- Do successful seasons by the A’s and Rays and to some extent the Pirates — three of the four teams the Players Association grieved against (the Marlins were the other) for not appropriately spending revenue-sharing money — convince more teams that they can shun financial boldness and still have success? The A’s actually have spent about $17 million since March to augment their roster.
I suspect teams are going to particularly dig down on what the secret sauce has been for the Rays, who dispatched more talent from last season until now than any team yet got better. My hunch is there are a lot of defensive components there. But the highest profile element has been Tampa Bay’s use of relievers to start so often. And just to go full circle, the majority of those have been inexpensive arms, especially after trading Brad Boxberger last offseason and Alex Colome during the season.
Does that go into a thought process that further tamps down relief dollars this coming offseason?