When most bettors see Braves-Marlins, the knee-jerk reaction is to take the NL East-contending Braves, but I think we have a live underdog Tuesday afternoon in the also-ran Marlins. Miami sends Wei-Yin Chen to the mound with a 1.83 ERA in seven starts at Marlins Park. In his last start, he was on the unlucky end of a 2-0 loss to the division-leading Phillies as he struck out eight in six innings. That was the only game the Marlins lost to the Phillies in the series right before the All-Star break. They’ve won their past three series over the Brewers, Phillies and Rays and are playing their best baseball of the season.
Also in their favor, Atlanta counters with Julio Teheran, who hasn’t fooled many batters in daytime games with a 5.12 ERA in eight starts. These pitchers actually faced off on May 20 in Atlanta with Teheran getting lit up for six earned runs in five innings. Chen was again unlucky as he left with a 6-2 lead, but the Braves rallied against the Miami bullpen for a 10-9 victory, so the best bet is probably to take the Marlins to win after the first five innings to get the most out of the Chen-Teheran matchup.
The play: Marlins +130 in first five innings.