Aaron Nola of the Phillies has pitched very well at Citizens Bank Park.
Tuesday night, the surging Dodgers will try to break through against a pitcher who’s mowed down opponents all season in his home starts.
Nola at Home
ERA: 1.71
WHIP: 0.95
Opp. Batting: .208
IP/Start: 7.0
That’s right, an ERA below two while averaging seven innings per appearance! This is 2018 … nobody goes that deep into games any more. The Phillies are a perfect 9-0 in his home starts this season.
Betting markets recognized Nola’s excellence early. He’s been priced at -170 or higher in two-thirds of his home starts. But, there’s not much sports books can do to defend themselves against an undefeated pitcher.
Those prices actually hint at part of the “catch” in Nola’s performance. He’s faced a relatively soft schedule, with wins over the Reds back when they were terrible, the Mets, Blue Jays, and Orioles, and does have important divisional wins over the Braves and Nationals. But that’s not the same as beating the Dodgers, Cubs, or an American League power in interleague play.
That’s what makes Tuesday’s battle with the Dodgers such a litmus test. If Nola continues to impress, then the Phillies remain a serious threat to win the NL East, and a potential dark horse come October. If he struggles, we may be witnessing the beginning of a regression back toward career norms.
A big key to betting success from now through the end of the MLB season will be “threading the needle” between recent track record and likely regression. And there’s no better example this week than Nola throwing at home against the explosive road offense of the Dodgers, who are averaging more than five runs per game away from Chavez Ravine.