Moneyball is back in baseball news because the 2018 Athletics are well clear of the .500 mark despite ranking 30th in the majors in team payroll (according to spotrac.com). There still is room for brains and creativity in the era of brute financial force.
Oakland’s quality was hidden for a while because the A’s still have trouble matching up with true elites. Oakland can’t consistently outplay teams like the Yankees, Red Sox and Astros (Game 3 of their current four-game series at Houston is one of only a few Wednesday encounters matching opponents with winning records). The A’s kept running into elites in the first six weeks of the season.
If you throw out games against Houston, Boston and the Yankees, here were the best win-loss records in the American League versus “everyone else” entering the new week:
Team W-L (Pct.)
Mariners 52-23 (.693)
A’s 44-28 (.611)
Indians 46-32 (.590)
Angels 41-31 (.570)
Rays 33-27 (.550)
Payroll-poor Oakland is 16 games over .500 in 2018 when not playing “the big three.” The A’s also have established superiority over playoff-bound Cleveland. They just took two of three on the road from the Tribe, winning as underdogs of +200 and +140 on the money line. That was a week after taking two of three from the Indians at home.
The market has been very slow to catch on to Oakland’s high level of play. The A’s are up about 16 betting units with that 44-28 record, meaning they have been priced around even money, on average, over 72 games of .611 baseball.
Oakland isn’t a championship threat and probably is not even a playoff threat because Seattle has really crushed this category. But the A’s should continue to provide great betting value outside “the big three” as long as the market keeps disrespecting their roster.