Once Cole Hamels pitched and pitched well against the Yankees earlier this month, a familiar freight train began barreling toward July 31 — essentially wondering when the Yanks will acquire him.
This is the Yankees’ home address in the collective imagination. Often I think their fans believe the major leagues consist of the Yankees and 29 feeder systems to the Yankees.
But let’s table analysis of this caveman etiquette for another day. For now, we can all agree the Yankees are going to target a starter between now and the trade deadline — heck, we’ve known that since the offseason. But when it comes to whom the Yankees should acquire — or the Angels, Braves, Brewers, Dodgers, Phillies and perhaps another contender or two — should we even be sure Hamels will be the best mid-30s lefty available?
On Sunday, both Hamels and Toronto’s J.A. Happ started. The similarities do not end there. Both were traded on July 31, 2015, Hamels out of Pennsylvania (Phillies to the Rangers), Happ into the state (Mariners to Pirates). Both not only made their 11th start of 2018 on Sunday, but also their 79th start since those trades.
Hamels is more famous, a World Series MVP a decade ago, and thus the sexier name as the deadline nears. But is he better than Happ, who actually won Game 2 of a 2016 Division Series against the Rangers after Hamels lost Game 1?
That trade deadline is a demarcation point for Happ. Always talented, he took to Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage’s counsel — namely to be more aggressive throwing strikes and with his fastball. Since then, he is 44-20 with a 3.20 ERA, 2.6 walks per nine innings compared to 8.7 strikeouts and a slash line of .236/.293/.370.
Hamels in the same time period/number of starts is 36-17 with a 3.69 ERA, 3.2 walks per nine compared to 8.1 strikeouts and a slash line of .237/.313/.392.
Happ is 7-3 this season with a 3.84 ERA, 2.5 walks per nine innings compared to 10.8 strikeouts and a slash line of .224/.285/.363. Hamels is 3-5 with a 3.74 ERA, 3.6 walks per nine compared to 9.1 strikeouts and a slash line of .230/.320/.431.
Just a brief aside on Wins Above Replacement (WAR) and why it can be so problematic. There are two main purveyors of the metric and they do not calculate the same way. So Baseball Reference for 2018 has Hamels with 1.6 WAR and Happ with 1.2 while Fangraphs has Happ with 1.4 WAR and Hamels with 0.1.
But WAR or no WAR (and really, isn’t no war better?), a case can be made that Hamels and Happ are not separated by much but reputation. This is a familiar role for Happ.
At the July 2015 trade deadline, Happ was overshadowed by bigger names moving such as Hamels, Johnny Cueto, Scott Kazmir and David Price. Yet he pitched as well as any of them down that stretch. That offseason, the following starters received more in total free agent dollars than the three-year, $36 million the Blue Jays gave Happ: Price, Zack Greinke, Cueto, Jordan Zimmermann, Jeff Samardzija, Wei-Yin Chen, Mike Leake, Ian Kennedy and Kazmir. Since then, Happ’s ERA is 29 percent better than MLB average, factoring in league and park. That is better than any of those paid more in his free agent class and 14th in the majors (minimum 350 innings).
That $12 million average per year on Happ’s contract matters, too. It is average salary that counts toward calculating payroll for luxury tax purposes and teams such as the Yankees, Dodgers and perhaps the Angels will be counting pennies to try to stay under. On July 31, Happ (who actually makes $13 million this year) will have about $4 million left for luxury tax purposes.
Hamels averages $24 million per on his contract, so he would have roughly $8 million left on July 31. A team such as Texas can eat money to make the player more financially palatable, but usually that entails receiving a better return from the acquiring team. Also, Hamels has a $20 million 2019 option with a $6 million buyout. Interested teams could see that as a bonus because it means potential control of the pitcher for next season.
Hamels will definitely be available in the coming weeks as the last-place Rangers try to improve their future. The Blue Jays are 25-29, fourth in the AL East, and are run by pragmatic executives who will know at best Toronto is playing for the second wild card with the Red Sox and Yankees in the same division.
Happ, therefore, will be available, as will other starters besides him and Hamels. It is just Happ is so often overlooked, it is worth remembering as the deadline nears that he has become a very good major league starter.
New tricks for older players
Has anyone else noticed the trend of veteran players being moved to unfamiliar positions?
Jose Bautista was not signed by the Braves until the season began and to play third base, a position he had not manned regularly since 2008. Now a Met and with Wilmer Flores sent to the DL on Monday, Bautista might get further third base time.
Bautista’s former Blue Jays teammate, Russell Martin, started at shortstop on Saturday in the 1,463rd start of his major league career, mostly as a catcher. Then on Monday against the Red Sox, Martin started for the first time in left field.
On Sunday, in the 1,117th game of his career, Pablo Sandoval played second base for the first time. Via Cubs broadcaster Len Kasper’s Twitter and research from STATS, Sandoval at 255 pounds is the heaviest second baseman ever, edging out Cecil Fielder and Dave Parker, who were both listed at 250.
Aces are coming
Neither the Rockies nor Diamondbacks could open any significant distance in the NL West. This week we may begin to see the price for that, as Clayton Kershaw is due off the DL for the Dodgers on Thursday and Madison Bumgarner could return for the Giants on Friday — both in games against the Phillies.
When Memorial Day began, the Rockies were first in the NL West, leading the D’backs by 1½ games, the Giants by three and the suddenly surging Dodgers by 3½.
Kershaw, who last pitched May 1, has been out with left biceps tendinitis. The Dodgers had won eight of 10 through the weekend with their rotation pitching to a 1.91 ERA despite also missing Rich Hill and Hyun-jin Ryu thanks largely to the rebound of Kenta Maeda and the efforts of youngsters Walker Buehler and Ross Stripling.
Bumgarner has been out since incurring a broken pinky in his final start of spring. He made a rehab start Saturday and the Giants may decide to use him in the majors on Friday with a roughly 70-pitch limit rather than have him make a second rehab start. With Johnny Cueto (0.80 ERA) also on the DL, the Giants’ rotation member with the lowest ERA is 4.73 by Derek Holland.