A few months ago it seemed as if Sam Darnold, Josh Allen and Josh Rosen were the slam-dunk top choices at quarterback in next week’s draft. Then, Baker Mayfield crashed the party.
The Heisman Trophy winner has gained steam through the pre-draft process and now is seen as a possibility at No. 3 for the Jets. Mayfield has his detractors, but he has also been tabbed as the top quarterback in this draft by some of the draft evaluators.
The Post spoke to two of those evaluators who have Mayfield on the top of their quarterback list: Pro Football Focus senior analyst Steve Palazzolo and Dan Shonka, the general manager and national scout for Ourlads’ scouting services.
It is interesting both have Mayfield at No. 1, because they come at the draft in different ways. Shonka is the classic scout who has worked for the Eagles, Redskins and Chiefs. Palazzolo and PFF are data-driven. They evaluate the film and grade prospects on on-field production. They do not take into account things like a player’s character or his measurables.
With Mayfield, the fact he is just under 6-foot-1 is what some people are marking him down for. With PFF, it is not a factor.
“I believe if he was 6-foot-3, he would be the consensus,” Palazzolo said. “The thing working against him is his height and a little bit of the off-field stuff.”
At PFF, they view Mayfield’s numbers as evidence enough that he is the top prospect.“In our world it’s all about down-to-down production,” Palazzolo said. “We grade these guys on every single snap, so we have every snap of everyone’s career. Baker’s had the two highest season grades from a pure production standpoint that we’ve ever given in our four years of doing this and three out of the top six overall grades. It’s just the consistent production.”
Shonka points to Mayfield’s accuracy. He completed 70.5 percent of his passes last year, the most accurate quarterback in the nation.
“First of all you have to have accuracy and you got to make great decisions, if you can’t do that you can’t play quarterback in the NFL,” Shonka said. “Now, if you’re a little bit taller, that’s great. I reread my report on Drew Brees and I thought I was looking at Baker Mayfield. They’re both from Austin, Texas, they’re both almost exactly the same height and weight when they came out and they ran the same 40-dash time at the combine. He’s got Drew Brees-type accuracy.’’
PFF has several data points and evaluations they look at for each quarterback prospect. Palazzolo said Mayfield comes out on top in almost all of them.
“When you slice the numbers, no matter which way you slice them, he comes out on top,” he said. “Playing from a clean pocket, playing under pressure, both of those he was our top-rated guy in this draft class. Against the blitz, no blitz, always the top guy. Everything he does is pretty good.
“I’ve tried to find flaws. I’m not saying he’s the perfect prospect, but he always comes out on top when we break it down.”
Mayfield’s adjusted completion percentage, which factors in drops and other factors out of the quarterback’s control, was 80.6. By comparison, Rosen was at 75.0, Darnold 70.4 and Allen’s percentage was 66.5.
Mayfield actually was the most accurate passer in each of the past two years, Palazzolo said, topping last year’s top prospects — Mitch Trubisky, Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes II.
Shonka said the Jets should pounce if Mayfield is available at No. 3.
“The reason I would take Baker Mayfield, he’s a winner and the guys around him will rally because they think he’s gonna lead them to a championship,” Shonka said. “Making plays, that gives confidence to the rest of your team.”
— Additional reporting by Paul Schwartz