The Palestinian Game of Thrones is on.
White House Mideast peace planner Jared Kushner’s security clearance troubles and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s legal struggle may be all the rage among the region’s watchers this week. But a Ramallah power play, conducted away from the media’s prying eye, is brewing — and we ignore it at our peril.
As 83-year-old Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas’ health deteriorates, his would-be successors jockey for position.
Last week, Abbas made a UN speech in a shaky voice. His puffy face led many to speculate the heavy smoker is heavily medicated. He checked into Maryland’s Johns Hopkins Hospital the next day.
Palestinian officials said Abbas underwent an unspecified “routine checkup,” and by this week he was back on his feet in Ramallah.
But his return didn’t stem a stealth campaign among his would-be heirs.
Neighboring Arab leaders are starting to pick their favored horses in the race to succeed Abbas. A Palestinian official even predicted to me last week, that “this time it won’t be decided by us, but by the leaders of the Arab states.”
One of those leading candidates, the Fatah party secretary general Jibril Rajoub, went on the attack against his rival’s backers this week. “It is not acceptable for Egypt to support Muhammad Dahlan,” Rajoub told the BBC in a rare public airing of their rivalry.
That rivalry started back when Yasser Arafat, who ruled Palestinian politics until his 2004 death, made Rajoub top security official in the West Bank, while Dahlan had that portfolio in Gaza.
After Hamas seized power in Gaza, Dahlan moved to Dubai, where he lined up powerful financial supporters. Leading Sunni powers (the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt) now back Dahlan, while Rajoub seeks help from Qatar.
Other top contenders include Abbas’ current intelligence chief, Majid Faraj, who is well-connected in Jerusalem and Washington; and former Palestinian UN Ambassador Nasser al Kidwa, who’d be favored by some Western Europeans and who, as Arafat’s nephew, is considered Palestinian royalty.
It’s also possible that Abbas’ three titles — Fatah chief, Palestinian Authority president and PLO chairman — will be divided among three contenders, not held by one person, as they are now.
Or, as Israelis fear most, in lieu of a clear line of succession, a Palestinian bloodbath will determine the winner.
Abbas never named a successor. Yes, he recently crowned a deputy Fatah chairman. But the man, Mahmoud al-Alul, is almost unknown outside Ramallah and so is a weak contender: As in much of the Arab world, would-be Palestinian leaders must be backed by armed men. Gray apparatchiks are at a distinct disadvantage.
Which brings us to Hamas, the uncontested ruler of Gaza. According to the Palestinian constitution, once the current president can no longer function, the speaker of the legislative council becomes interim leader. That position is held by a Hamas politician, Aziz Duwaik. And, as Abbas’s 12 years as president after being elected for four shows, temporary can last forever.
So Hamas, a US-designated terrorist organization, may end up taking over West Bank politics, burying any hope of better Israeli-Palestinian relations.
Washington, as yet, has been mostly mum, but if America wants to remain relevant in the Mideast, it must draw some red lines and clarify our interests: Avoid a bloody succession battle; make sure Hamas stays out of power; ensure the next leader continues security coordination with our allies Jordan, Egypt and, most crucially, Israel.
Throwing America’s weight behind a Palestinian candidate isn’t without risk, though. Dahlan, for example, now tells everyone who’ll listen that America hates him, knowing it increases popular support among Palestinians.
Jonathan Schanzer, the Palestinian watcher at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, says “we need to have our ear to the ground,” making sure anyone we back has popular support — but also watch out for our core interests.
Achieving that would be a neat trick, perhaps beyond the capacity of the current, or any, administration. But neglecting to clarify our preferences will be hazardous — for us and our allies.