Ready or not, here come the Post’s Top 30 free-agent rankings and predictions.
Baseball’s five-day quiet period after the World Series concludes at midnight Monday into Tuesday, at which point free agents are free to sign with any club. The one exception to this rule is Shohei Otani, who won’t enter the market until or unless his current employer, the Nippon Ham-Fighters, post him.
These rankings are compiled via statistical analysis and projected earnings as well as a dollop of popular demand and New York bias. The predictions result from background conversations with team officials, agents and other people in the loop, as well as an attempt to think along with clubs and players.
1. Eric Hosmer, 1B. The belle of the free-agent ball: durable, personable and entering his age-28 season.
Prediction: Red Sox, 7 years, $150 million.
2. J.D. Martinez, OF. The Red Sox will sign either him or Hosmer. Martinez’s market beyond that is foggy.
Prediction: Mariners, 5 years, $120 million.
3. Yu Darvish, RHP. How much will his terrible World Series hurt his value? Or to flip the question, how much would a good World Series have helped his value?
Prediction: Angels, 5 years, $117.5 million
4. Jake Arrieta, RHP. Three straight years of stellar regular-season and extensive postseason innings bolster his resume.
Prediction: Cardinals, 5 years, $110 million
5. Lorenzo Cain, OF. Of this free-agent class, the leader in WAR (using both Baseball-Reference.com’s and FanGraph’s measurements) the last two years.
Prediction: Giants, 4 years, $75 million
6. Wade Davis, RHP. He’ll benefit from last year’s closer trailblazers Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen, although he won’t match them.
Prediction: Cubs, 4 years, $64 million
7. Mike Moustakas, 3B. Man, what a run the Royals had, huh? Three of the top seven free agents are theirs.
Prediction: Royals, 6 years, $100 million.
8. Carlos Santana, 1B. He and the Indians have such a good thing going. Why stop now?
Prediction: Indians, 4 years, $65 million
9. Shohei Otani, P-OF. His free agency will be unlike any we’ve seen due to the financial limitations. To be clear: Whoever signs him controls him for at least six years.
Prediction: Yankees, $3.25 million signing bonus
10. Todd Frazier, 3B. He’s meant to play in New York, but his timing is bad.
Prediction: Braves, 3 years, $40 million
11. Jay Bruce, OF. The Mets want him back. Does he want them back?
Prediction: Astros, 3 years, $42 million
12. Zack Cozart, SS: What to make of a guy who put up his best year, by far, in his age-31 season?
Prediction: Reds, 3 years, $40 million
13. Alex Cobb, RHP. He came back strong in his first full year after Tommy John surgery.
Prediction: Cubs, 3 years, $38 million.
14. Lance Lynn, RHP. He too rebounded nicely after missing 2016 due to TJ surgery.
Prediction: Orioles, 3 years, $36 million
15. Eduardo Nunez, IF. He has come a long way since the Yankees traded him to the Twins for Miguel Sulbaran in 2014.
Prediction: Angels, 3 years, $27 million
16. CC Sabathia, LHP. The last time he explored the market, George W. Bush was the U.S. President and the iPad didn’t exist yet.
Prediction: Yankees, 1 year, $12 million
17. Addison Reed, RHP. The former Met’s very successful stay with the Mets will pay off now.
Prediction: Braves, 3 years, $30 million
18. Welington Castillo, C. He opted out of his Baltimore deal after a great year with the Orioles.
Prediction: Rangers, 3 years, $27 million
19. Greg Holland, RHP. Yet another returnee from TJ surgery — and another opt-out guy — he enjoyed a Rockies renaissance before tiring.
Prediction: Nationals, 3 years, $39 million
20. Neil Walker, 2B. His health now has to be a concern after two straight years with heavy disabled-list time.
Prediction: Brewers, 2 years, $22 million
21. Bryan Shaw, RHP. A bullpen machine for his entire career.
Prediction: Mets, 3 years, $27 million
22. Jonathan Lucroy, C. He’s a year late for optimal timing, which will leave him several million dollars short.
Prediction: Rockies, 2 years, $20 million
23. Pat Neshek, RHP. One of many intriguing relievers out there, his age (37) works against him.
Prediction: Cardinals, 2 years, $16 million
24. Logan Morrison, 1B. How much of an outlier was his superb 2017?
Prediction: Mets, 2 years, $25 million
25. Tony Watson, LHP. He should earn the most of the many southpaw relievers available.
Prediction: Dodgers, 3 years, $22 million
26. Brandon Morrow, RHP. He’ll do far better than last winter, when he signed a minor-league deal with the Dodgers.
Prediction: Astros, 2 years, $16 million
27. Jason Vargas, LHP. One of the game’s slowest throwers, he brings us to the “innings-eaters” portion of our program.
Prediction: Mets, 1 year, $9 million
28. Lucas Duda, 1B. The past two years have not been kind to him.
Prediction: Rays, 1 year, $7 million
29. John Lackey, RHP. The old fellow could retire unless he finds an excellent fit.
Prediction: Angels, 1 year, $9 million
30. Curtis Granderson, OF. While his overall 2017 numbers weren’t bad, his time with the Dodgers was just so awful.
Prediction: Retirement