When is fantasy football like a game of Jenga? When you pull one out one piece of the offense and the whole tower crumbles.
Need an example? Look no further than the Packers’ struggling passing game once quarterback Aaron Rodgers was lost to a shoulder injury.
Want a new example? Stupid question. Of course you don’t. Who wants potential fantasy studs ruined by an injury to one key component? Sadly, that is exactly what happened Thursday when rookie phenom QB Deshaun Watson was lost for the season with a torn ACL.
Not only do you lose the third-highest scoring player overall, and second-highest QB, you lose a substantial waiver find. The good news is, QB is one of the easiest positions to replace in traditional leagues. Bad news: It hampers other studs at positions for which the replacement value is much more shallow, expensive and hard to find. It is the collateral damage that is more difficult to overcome.
Just look at elite wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. He was averaging 86.6 yards per game and had seven touchdowns in seven games this season. Now go back to last season, when Brock Osweiler and Tom Savage were his QBs. He averaged 30 fewer yards per game, nearly two fewer receptions, and had four TDs all season.
Let’s put that in perspective: Last season, he averaged about 10.25 points per game in PPR leagues (roughly 5.0 for receptions, 6.0 for yards and 0.25 per game for TDs). This year, he was averaging 21.1 per game. Granted, Hopkins was able to piece together strong fantasy seasons with the likes of Matt Schaub, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Brian Hoyer at various intervals. So it can be done. Just don’t expect it regularly.
A guy such as Will Fuller V, who has exploded with Watson, becomes what he was originally — a daily fantasy flyer and Hail Mary bye-week filler. Lamar Miller? Without the significant pass/run options Watson represented, defenses can focus more intently on stopping the run.
The cold, harsh reality is, Hopkins and Fuller are now much less valuable, much less reliable, yet too explosive (even with a bad QB) to be dropped outright for Cooper Kupp or Allen Hurns or the like. But what you can do is play upside with the back end of your WR corps.
Go out and get guys who might be set for a big second half, such as Corey Davis, John Ross or Josh Doctson. Grab Aldrick Robinson anticipating more use after Pierre Garcon’s injury. Keep an eye on Russell Shepard and Curtis Samuel in Carolina after the Kelvin Benjamin trade.
But this week, you can’t pull Hopkins in a matchup with the lowly Colts. Fuller likely is better than alternatives, but starting him isn’t required. But ahead, there are some matchup landmines that a QB like Savage won’t help them overcome.
Fantasy Jenga can be a cruel game.
Big Weeks
Jacoby Brissett QB, Colts, at Texans (FanDuel $6,500/DraftKings $5,200)
The Texans have had problems defending the pass. They have lost two of their best defenders (J.J., Watt, Whitney Mercilus). They could be disheartened after injury to Deshaun Watson. Employ all Colts.
Adrian Peterson RB, Cardinals, at 49ers (FD $6,800/DK $5,600)
The 49ers are the most generous defense to fantasy RBs. With Drew Stanton at QB, expecting Arizona to lean on run.
Sterling Shepard WR, Giants, vs. Rams (FD $5,900/DK $5,200)
Don’t normally like guys coming off injury, particularly in tough matchup. But who else are Giants going to throw to, other than TE Evan Engram?
Vernon Davis TE, Redskins, at Seahawks (FD $5,400/DK $4,100)
Washington has no running game. WRs won’t win battles with Seahawks corners. Funnel to Chris Thompson and tight ends.
Small Weaks
Cam Newton QB, Panthers, vs. Falcons (FD $7,600/DK $6,300)
Atlanta might be struggling on offense, but it has done a fine job against opposing fantasy QBs. Newton has three combined TDs and seven turnovers the pass three weeks.
C.J. Anderson RB, Broncos, at Eagles (FD $6,500/DK $4,800)
Has been victim of game flow, and Eagles have been stout against the run. Brock Osweiler at QB won’t help loosen the defense.
Jay Ajayi RB, Eagles, vs. Broncos (FD $6,800/DK $5,700)
Worry about him long-term in crowded backfield. This week — against the top run defense, when he isn’t likely to get significant carries — no interest whatsoever.
A.J. Green WR, Bengals, at Jaguars (FD $8,200/DK $7,400)
Can’t sit him in seasonal leagues, but expect down week, and adjust roster accordingly with high-risk/upside plays elsewhere.
The Decision
Post fantasy Madman Drew Loftis and Roto Rage Jarad Wilk debate whom you should start this week:
Aaron Jones vs. Doug Martin
Drew: Jones — Ty Montgomery has been fully Wally Pipp’d by Jones. With the Packers trying desperately to avoid leaning on backup QB Brett Hundley, expect a heavy workload. At home, on a chilly night, against the dome-dwelling Lions, we expect it to stay close. We don’t have the same game-flow confidence regarding Martin and the Buccaneers at New Orleans.
Jarad: Martin — Not only have the Saints allowed running backs to rush for 100 yards or more the past two weeks, they are allowing 4.9 yards per carry (tied for third worst in the league) and have allowed the most rushing plays of 20- and 40-plus yards in the league. They have also allowed double-digit fantasy points to RBs every week but one. With Jameis Winston still banged up and the Bucs’ defense struggling, look for Tampa Bay to lean heavily on the Muscle Hamster.
Last week: Jarad 22.3 (Lamar Miller — 21-54, 1 TD rushing; 3-19 1 TD receiving), Drew 7.8 (Tarik Cohen — 4-2, 1 TD rushing; 1-6 receiving)
Season: Series tied, 4-4
Tweet of the Week
Zach Miller TD called back because he dropped ball before being loaded into cart with broken leg. #CHIvsNO
Week 9 Streaming Ds
Saints, Cardinals, 49ers, Colts, Falcons, Raiders