After 162 games, the Yankees will face the Twins on Tuesday in The Bronx in a wild-card game with the winner going on to face the Indians in the ALDS. The Yankees hosted the Astros in this game two years ago and Dallas Keuchel outpitched Masahiro Tanaka. They’re hoping for a different outcome this time with Luis Severino starting against Ervin Santana.
At the plate
Getting on base: Only the Astros (896) scored more runs than the Yankees (858) this season. And the Yankees finished strong, scoring at least four runs in 13-of-15 games prior to this past weekend as they pulled away in the wild-card race. Aaron Judge didn’t just lead the way with homers, he also finished second behind only Mike Trout in the AL in on-base percentage (.422) and his resurgence undoubtedly has aided the entire lineup. Minnesota, though, got to the playoffs largely due to its lineup, which led the majors in runs scored since the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. Joe Mauer made quite an impression on Severino when they faced off for the first time last month, as Mauer singled after a 13-pitch at-bat.
Edge: Even
Power: The Yankees led the majors with 241 homers and were third in the AL in slugging percentage, while the Twins were sixth. But Minnesota has homered more than any team since August. The Yankees are especially lethal in The Bronx, where Judge hit 33 of his 52 homers. Gary Sanchez had 19 homers in his final 55 games. From the left side, Didi Gregorius hit 25 homers, and the addition of a healthy Greg Bird has been key, with the first baseman having hit eight homers in 26 games after returning from ankle surgery. Miguel Sano is a huge unknown for Minnesota. The third baseman was reinstated from the disabled list this past weekend after having been sidelined since Aug. 11 with a shin injury. He was the DH in Minnesota’s regular-season finale on Sunday, but it’s questionable if he can run, so he may be relegated to pinch-hitting duties. Minnesota’s lineup includes Byron Buxton, Brian Dozier and Eddie Rosario, as well as Max Kepler, who had 17 of his 19 homers against right-handers.
Edge: Yankees
On the basepaths: The Yankees swiped four bases off the Twins in a game started by Santana on Sept. 18, but Minnesota has some speed of its own with Buxton, Dozier and Jorge Polanco.
Edge: Even
In the field
Infield: Gregorius anchors an average infield, with Bird at first, Starlin Castro at second and Todd Frazier at third. Sanchez has struggled behind the plate, but manager Joe Girardi has made it clear his bat more than makes up for those deficiencies. One of the reasons Minnesota went from the worst team in baseball to the playoffs is its defense, which went from brutal a season ago to at least middle-of-the-pack this year. Mauer is solid at first and Eduardo Escobar is an upgrade at third over Sano. Backstop Jason Castro has been credited as a big part of Minnesota’s turnaround since coming over from Houston this season.
Edge: Even
Outfield: If Aaron Hicks plays, he changes the outfield with his speed and athleticism in center field. An outfield of Brett Gardner in left, Jacoby Ellsbury in center and Judge in right is weaker than some, while Rosario and Buxton are brilliant at times for the Twins.
Edge: Twins
Bench
The Yankees figure to have Ellsbury or Hicks coming off the bench — and perhaps Matt Holliday. Tyler Wade could be used as a pinch runner. And Chase Headley would be available should Girardi not put him in the lineup. If Sano isn’t the DH, he could be a dangerous bat in reserve.
Edge: Yankees
On the mound
Starter: It’s youth versus experience with Severino pitching in his first playoff game — at any level — against Santana, who has appeared in eight postseason games with mixed results. Severino just completed a regular season that vaulted him into the Cy Young conversation, while Santana had perhaps the best year of his career.
Edge: Yankees
Bullpen: This is the kind of game for which the Yankees built their bullpen, with Adam Warren, Tommy Kahnle, Chad Green, David Robertson, Dellin Betances and Aroldis Chapman all rested. Betances has given the Yankees a scare lately, but the rest of the pen has been dominant. The Twins’ bullpen can’t match the Yankees’ star power, but it has performed well — even after Brandon Kintzler was shipped to Washington at the trade deadline. Matt Belisle took over as closer and gave up just one run in his last nine appearances. Taylor Rogers, a lefty, surrendered just one run in his last 14¹/₃ innings. Trevor Hildenberger faced a dozen Yankees hitters and allowed just two to reach base and Alan Busenitz, another right-hander, has been effective.
Edge: Yankees
Manager
Paul Molitor turned a 103-loss mess into a wild-card team in one year, which might win him Manager of the Year. Girardi has helped the Yankees exceed expectations, as well, with a young team that looked to be rebuilding, but instead is back in the postseason.
Edge: Even
Intangibles
The Yankees are looking to extend an October tradition of knocking off the Twins in the postseason, something they did in 2003, 2004, 2009 and 2010. This season, the Yankees won four of six against Minnesota, including a three-game sweep of the Twins in The Bronx last month. And the Yankees had the best home record in the AL (51-30), winning 13 of their previous 16 games in The Bronx.
Edge: Yankees