Experience is a double-edged sword.
The Mets will open the 2017 season with their most well-seasoned bunch in maybe a decade, but experience also means older bodies that are more susceptible to breaking down.
Lucas Duda, Neil Walker, David Wright and Travis d’Arnaud all missed significant action last season, and that only accounts for the starting position players.
In the rotation, Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey and Steven Matz all underwent surgery, testing the organization’s depth. Somehow the Mets emerged with a National League wild-card berth, giving the franchise consecutive postseason appearances for the first time since 1999-2000. The ride lasted one game, with a 3-0 loss to the Giants.
Now the Mets have reconvened with the goal of finishing business and ending a World Series championship drought that dates to 1986.
Their chances of attaining that goal could hinge largely on their experienced players remaining on the field.
Safe money says the Mets and Nationals will keep the NL East a two-team dogfight.
Mets essentials
Most important hitter
Yoenis Cespedes is the engine that powers this Mets lineup. Just consider the fact the Mets are 110-79 with him in the lineup since his arrival and 14-18 when he doesn’t play. The wild-card run last season didn’t begin until Cespedes returned from the disabled list with his right quadriceps healed.
Most important pitcher
Noah Syndergaard emerged as the staff ace last season and may not have reached his full potential yet. The 24-year-old Syndergaard bulked up in the offseason and is working to perfect a changeup that can be added to his dominant fastball and slider. If Syndergaard can figure out how to keep base runners in check, his ERA could drop below 2.00 this season. But Jacob deGrom could challenge Syndergaard’s supremacy on the staff after a strong spring in which his velocity returned. The righty missed the final month-plus of last season with a nerve issue in his elbow and appears ready for a big season.
Will have a bigger year than expected
Travis d’Arnaud will begin the season as the lineup’s weakest link, but if he can remain healthy, it’s not difficult to imagine him duplicating the .825 OPS he had in limited action two years ago.
D’Arnaud’s defensive shortcomings are easier to overlook when he’s hitting. But the organization’s decision to hire Glenn Sherlock as a catching mentor should help d’Arnaud, who threw out only 22 percent of the runners attempting to steal against him last season.
Offensively, he’s shortened his swing and is making better contact.
Most likely to disappoint
Addison Reed was maybe the team’s MVP last season, making 80 appearances and pitching to a 1.97 ERA. Simply, he locked down the eighth inning and gave manager Terry Collins a dominant back end of the bullpen that included Jeurys Familia. But Reed has never pitched near that level in his career. Can he approach last year’s heights?
Reed will have added responsibility for the first two-plus weeks of the season as the closer while Familia serves a 15-game suspension for violating MLB’s domestic abuse policy.
Key call up
The organization’s top prospect, Amed Rosario, could be ready for his major league debut before the season concludes. The 21-year-old stud shortstop provides the Mets with an insurance policy if Asdrubal Cabrera, Neil Walker or Jose Reyes needs a long-term absence later in the season. The Mets ideally would like to see Rosario conquer Triple-A before thrusting him into a major league role.
Biggest managerial decision
In what falls into the realm of front office/manager’s decision, the Mets must figure out how to negotiate Zack Wheeler’s innings limit in his return from Tommy John surgery after two years of rehab. The initial thought was Wheeler — named the fourth starter to begin the season — would have a limit within 120-125 innings, but general manager Sandy Alderson recently suggested there could be flexibility based on how Wheeler is feeling. The most likely scenario is Wheeler would be limited to less than six innings for most of his starts, but that also could overextend the bullpen.
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Don’t be surprised if …
Lucas Duda returns from the stress fracture in his back that cost him most of last season and hits 30 home runs. The slugging first baseman could be buried as low as seventh in the batting order, giving the Mets a threat later in the lineup.
Sure to make fans grumble
Jay Bruce needs a decent start to his season after scuffling during his two months with the club last year. If he struggles early, it won’t be “Bruce” resonating through the grandstand at Citi Field. And the fact Bruce is blocking Michael Conforto from taking regular at-bats in the major leagues only further underscores the importance of a fast start.
Will make the playoffs if …
They keep most of their starting pitchers healthy.
Will miss the playoffs if …
They win 87 games again this season. The National League is top heavy, meaning the runners-up in each division could each win 90.
Injury that would hurt the most
Plain and simple, the Mets need Cespedes in the lineup.
Playing the field
First base: Lucas Duda missed most of last season with a stress fracture in his lower back, but has reverted to his previous form in spring training, driving the ball and getting on base. The Mets could use Wilmer Flores against many lefties, but Duda if healthy will probably receive 90 percent of the starts.
Second base: Neil Walker for Jon Niese was a great trade for the Mets. Now Walker has to remain healthy the entire season and continue his production from both sides of the plate. Walker blasted 23 homers in just 113 games last season, before undergoing surgery for a herniated disk in his back.
Shortstop: Asdrubal Cabrera’s bat was a key component in the Mets’ 27-13 surge to a National League wild-card berth last season. But Cabrera battled knee problems throughout the season and will be closely monitored this year to ensure he’s not overworked. Cabrera was better than the Mets could have expected defensively at the position.
Third base: As David Wright’s future remains murky, the Mets have entrusted the position to Jose Reyes, who provided a leadoff presence to the lineup in the second half of last season.
The 33-year-old Reyes still has speed and will provide the Mets with a respectable stolen-base presence. Reyes’ versatility as a switch-hitter who can play multiple positions is greatly valued by the organization.
Left field: Yoenis Cespedes’ return on a four-year contract worth $110 million was the Mets’ biggest offseason move.
Cespedes impressed club officials with his work ethic this spring, showing no signs of complacency following his new deal. Cespedes is probably the most electrifying power hitter in the Mets lineup since Mike Piazza’s early years with the organization.
Center field: Curtis Granderson handled the position over the final 2 ½ months of last season, but how will the 36-year-old fare as the starter for a full year? Granderson had a streaky season at the plate, getting hot over the final month-plus to finish with 30 homers. The Mets will look to get Juan Lagares, once he’s healthy, involved in center on a regular basis to give the team a defensive presence in the outfield.
Right field: The Mets’ offseason plan was to trade Jay Bruce, but when a deal never materialized the club elected to keep him. Bruce was a disappointment after arriving from the Reds at the trade deadline last year, but there is no overlooking the fact he hit 33 homers last season and can add length to the Mets’ lineup.
Catcher: Travis d’Arnaud needs to stay healthy and then show team officials he’s worthy of playing on a regular basis. Though d’Arnaud’s throwing still has been an issue this spring, the Mets like what they have seen from him at the plate. Rene Rivera provides the Mets with a respected backup who is tougher to run against.
Starting pitching: Many teams don’t have as many as five quality starters, but the Mets believe they have seven. Heading the list is Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom, each of whom is capable of carrying the “ace” title.
Matt Harvey is back from surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome and possibly will have to show he can pitch without an overwhelming fastball. Steven Matz has battled injuries in each of his first two seasons and will open the season on the DL because of elbow soreness. Robert Gsellman was terrific down the stretch last season. Zack Wheeler is returning from a two-year rehab after Tommy John surgery, but showed his electric arsenal in spring training, leaving team officials hopeful he can emerge as a force.
Bullpen: Jeurys Familia is suspended for the first 15 games, but the Mets expect Addison Reed to handle the closer’s role before moving back to the eighth inning. Fernando Salas, Hansel Robles and Jerry Blevins will give the Mets experienced options, with Seth Lugo perhaps shifting to the bullpen to provide a middle-inning bridge. Josh Smoker had a strong exhibition season for the club and could be considered for a crossover role in which he faces righties and lefties.
Bench: Flores and T.J. Rivera will give the Mets options in the infield who are capable of delivering a big hit. Lagares’ strength is his defense, and Ty Kelly is capable of playing several positions. Rivera received work at first base later in camp and can play a corner outfield position in a pinch. Michael Conforto will begin the season as the team’s backup option in center field as Lagares battles a left oblique strain.
Prediction: 91-71, first place National League East. The Mets’ deep pitching gives them the slightest of edges over the Nationals.