TAMPA – If you think the main competition in Yankees camp is for the 2017 Nos. 4-5 starters, you really are not seeing the big picture.
Because this is how many sure-thing rotation pieces the Yankees have for the 2018 season: 0.
And since the Yankees are plotting as much for the future – actually more – than the present, well, you can see how this whole rebuild collapses unless legitimate starters emerge from the pool of about eight youngsters the Yankees like.
“We need three to step out, and you hope it is four or five,” Joe Girardi said.
This spring has encouraged the Yankees – and an observing industry – that a high-upside positional core is forming with Greg Bird, Gary Sanchez, eventually Gleyber Torres and Didi Gregorius. The Yankees would just need another cog or two to emerge from Clint Frazier, Aaron Judge, Jorge Mateo, Blake Rutherford, etc. to have the nucleus of a perennial contender.
Position players are easier to project. Pitching is not. And, besides, this has not been a Yankee camp of reassurance in that area.
That Jordan Montgomery has barged into the conversation for a rotation spot after being a non-consideration when pitchers and catchers arrived last month is good in the more-the-merrier kind of way. But bad in that none of the youngsters the Yankees hoped would seize the Nos. 4-5 starters spots have.
Luis Cessa, who internally was the favorite when the camp opened, already has been sent to the minor league camp, the Yankees believing he was putting too much pressure on himself and lost his command. Luis Severino’s inability to master a changeup (he threw a few good ones Friday) has created enough inconsistency to re-raise the question if the Yankees should make him a power reliever.
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Chad Green has yet to refine his secondary stuff. Bryan Mitchell still must show he can repeat his delivery enough to capitalize on tantalizing stuff.
Adam Warren, who started Saturday against the Blue Jays, is theoretically in this competition. But the Yankees probably will return him to his jack-of-all-trades pen role. The Yanks do not need a fifth starter until April 16 and, thus, will tab just a fourth starter – probably Severino, maybe Mitchell – and will carry eight relievers to open the season.
But again, that is just about the beginning of 2017. When the schedule ends, Michael Pineda, CC Sabathia and Masahiro Tanaka all can be free agents. Add that to the youth uncertainty, and there are no sure starters for the 2018 season.
“It is an area of focus, without question,” Brian Cashman said.
But it also was during the past offseason, when a combination of a weak free-agent class, big demands in trades and a general lack of product moved Cashman not to add a starter with control beyond this season. The free-agent class improves next winter, with Tanaka and Johnny Cueto, if they both opt out of their contracts, Jake Arrieta and Yu Darvish leading the field.
However, the Yankees believe that to set themselves up for a strong near future, they need to sink under what will be a $197 million luxury-tax threshold in 2018. And that grows near impossible if they must go outside the organization to add three or four starters, and that is even with burgeoning talent in the minors making them deep enough to enact a trade or two (if the commodity is on the market).
Now, the Red Sox are the AL East favorites and have complemented a mostly homegrown superb positional core with a rotation entirely imported via free agency (David Price) or trade (Drew Pomeranz, Rick Porcello, Eduardo Rodriguez, Chris Sale and Steven Wright). They have done that over several seasons, however, and at a great cost of dollars and prospects.
They have needed to do so because, while doing a terrific job of drafting and developing position players, the Red Sox have fared poorly with starting pitching. The Yankees have failed in both areas, which is why there is caution here.
It was not long ago that they touted Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy as a rotation core of the future, and then the Killer “Bs” of Manny Banuelos, Dellin Betances and Andrew Brackman.Girardi described this as a better situation because the talent is “broader and deeper” with not just Cessa, Green, Mitchell, Montgomery and Severino, but Chance Adams, James Kaprielian (who is viewed as having the highest ceiling) and Justus Sheffield pushing closer, too. I asked scouts and executives from five different organizations about the group and all agreed it had volume, talent and a strong chance to produce several long-term solutions.
“On the right day, you can get very excited [about the assemblage],” Cashman said. “But there is nothing in our game more volatile than pitching.”
Yet from the uncertainty, the Yankees must find a few sure things or risk setting back their rebuild.