David Price’s elbow has ached, Zack Greinke’s fastball has diminished, and Jason Heyward’s swing has remained out of sync.
Price, Greinke and Heyward represent the three largest free-agent contracts awarded in the 2015-16 offseason, and now they enter Year 2 of those deals as arguably the biggest worries for their teams.
It still is too early to affix the “bust” label. But the top of that class — and not just the three highest paid — have mostly set off alarm bells. A look at the top 10:
1. David Price (seven years, $217 million)
The Red Sox gave up more big prospects to obtain Chris Sale because they are going for it — but also to de-emphasize Price, a year after guaranteeing the lefty more money than any pitcher ever. They hope the presence of Sale and the emergence of AL Cy Young winner Rick Porcello make Price a more comfortable No. 3 starter, after his first season in Boston ended with Price’s worst ERA since his rookie campaign and yet another postseason failure.
And that is assuming health. Price is expected to begin the year on the disabled list with a strained left elbow, which initially raised concerns he would need Tommy John surgery. Boston has an exceptional roster, but lacks rotation depth, so Price’s ability to simply be a workhorse No. 3 starter — for $30 million — is needed. He has an opt-out after the 2018 season.
2. Zack Greinke (six years $206.5 million)
He signed the largest per-annum deal in history ($34.4 million) and had his ERA rise by 2 1/2 runs from Dodgers brilliance in 2015 to Diamondbacks disappointment last year. He ended the 2016 season with what was described as a minor shoulder ailment. Does that have anything to do with why his fastball had been consistently 88-89 mph this spring before ticking up in five one-run innings Saturday against the Netherlands? Arizona is hoping this is just about a late start to his throwing program.
Greinke, 33, always has been more craft than velocity, and Arizona needs him to be excellent, if for no other reason than to give it a chance to trade him come July.
3. Jason Heyward (eight years, $184 million)
Cubs officials love Heyward’s defense, work ethic and makeup. But that is not going to cover up last season’s .631 OPS, by far the worst by any qualified outfielder (Kevin Pillar at .679 was next worst). Heyward moved to Arizona in the offseason and worked diligently to try to economize a long, complicated swing. General manager Jed Hoyer echoed all those I asked with the Cubs by saying, “We feel really good about the changes he has made.”
But scouts who have watched Heyward this spring (5-for-35 with one homer) hardly were concurring. They noted amendments in his approach, but still used terms like “mechanical,” “out of sync” and “disjointed” to describe the swing — while saying it looks like he is thinking at the plate rather than using his athleticism to react and hit.
If Heyward, who can opt out after the 2018 season, continues not to hit, could manager Joe Maddon go with Kyle Schwarber and Ben Zobrist as the regular corner outfielders with Heyward playing late for defense?
4. Chris Davis (seven years, $161 million)
His OPS sagged from .923 to .792 in the first season of this deal while Davis amassed the third-most strikeouts (219) ever in a season. What will become of those strikeout totals as Davis ages and loses some of his athleticism, and how much might the Orioles regret retaining the lefty masher instead of saving to try to keep Manny Machado, who can be a free agent after the 2018 season?
5. Justin Upton (six years, $132.75 million)
[mlbvideo id=”1238632783″ width=”600″ height=”340″ /]
Through Aug. 18 last year, Upton had a .652 OPS and 13 homers before a final 38 games in which he spruced his season-long stats by producing a 1.162 OPS and 18 homers. Detroit would love for him to have such a good year that he opts out of the final four seasons of his deal after this season.
6. Johnny Cueto (six years, $130 million)
Despite all the worries about his elbow and general conditioning, Cueto (18-5, 2.79) was stellar for the Giants last season, by far the best production of any of the top-10 free-agent contracts done in the 2015-16 offseason. He, too, can opt out after this year.
7. Jordan Zimmermann (five years, $110 million)
He had the opposite season of Upton, terrific early (5-2, 1.50 ERA) for the Tigers and terrible thereafter (4-5, 7.69 ERA). And he has not been sharp this spring.
8. Jeff Samardzija (five years, $90 million)
He probably never is to be as good as envisioned. He essentially is a league-average innings eater. In his five years as a full-time starter, he has averaged 205 innings. Good. His ERA-plus in that time is 1 percent under league average. Meh.
9. Wei-Yin Chen (five years, $80 million)
Chen called his first Marlins season “terrible” when speaking to reporters who cover the team. He had a 4.96 ERA and spent most of the second half on the DL with an elbow strain. With the death of Jose Fernandez, the Marlins crave the lefty, who made 31 starts in each of his final two Orioles seasons with an ERA-plus 17 percent better than the league average. After this season, Chen can reject options that pay him three years at $52 million.
10. Mike Leake (five years, $80 million)
Defenders of Mike Leake will say he was the same as always last year and that his worst season (9-12, 4.69) reflected a poor defense behind him, and that a pitcher who allows the ball to be put in play will benefit this year from the Cardinals’ focus on upgrading on that side of the ball.
Don’t miss Double Play, an exclusive live conversation with Joel Sherman and Mike Vaccaro on Wednesday, March 22 at 6:30pm at Lucille’s at BB King in New York City. Click here to get your ticket.