ORLANDO — The New York Lottery Police Department is on red alert. It’s that time of March when the “NYLPD” view Knicks losses as more valuable than wins.
With 18 games left to play, including Wednesday’s match in Milwaukee, the number of ping-pong balls come and go with each result. No matter if Kristaps Porzingis looked strong in his return last week or rookie point guard Chasson Randle had a breakout performance Monday night in their second victory of the week in Orlando.
By winning the Orlando game, the Knicks temporarily lost key lottery positioning, with L-Day looming May 16 in Manhattan.
Monday’s victory — with four rookies occasionally on the court — dropped the Knicks from being in a tie for the sixth-worst record in the NBA to ninth-worst. Barring ties, the No. 6 seed has a 6.3 percent chance of getting the top overall pick and a 21.5 percent chance of landing in the top three; the No. 9 seed is at 1.7 percent and 6.1 percent, respectively.
Considering the many cases of just one or two draft slots being the difference between a franchise-altering player and a bust, Knicks president Phil Jackson and GM Steve Mills have a dilemma on whether to order Jeff Hornacek to rest Carmelo Anthony more and play certain inexperienced lineups across March and April. And that tank strategy still could backfire.
“I’ve never been president or GM, I only speak from a coach’s perspective of trying to win every game no matter the record, but to set the tone for next season,’’ said longtime former Nets assistant coach Brian Hill, now the Magic’s TV analyst. “You don’t throw in the towel and say, ‘Let’s be as bad as we can be.’ Especially with young players, management may ask you to experiment so they can evaluate them. But that Knicks second unit Monday, those guys were playing for their livelihood.”
Compounding the tanking issue is that the Knicks technically are still in the playoff chase, though last Friday’s loss in Philadelphia turned the Knicks into the greatest of long shots. The Knicks are in an awkward no-man’s land: in 12th place at 26-38, 5½ games out of the eighth seed and probably needing a miracle 14-4 finish to sneak in.
“Until you’re out of it and doesn’t look good, it would come from management,’’ Hornacek said. “If we’re out of the playoffs, we’ll start doing that. There’s veteran guys here who will never give up until they’re out of it. We’re going to try to still win games.’’
Of course, any winning run would have the lottery police on full throttle.
“It’s the perspective of a lot of fans who never engaged in competitive athletics,’’ Hill said. “But I don’t get mad at them. I understand it.’’
There’s enough rotten recent Knicks draft history to cry over. Lottery-positioning regrets were on full display at the Garden on Sunday, when Stephen Curry turned up the volume in the second half, along with the muted Garden sound system, to carry the league-best Warriors to victory.
The reigning MVP was in the Knicks’ sights weeks before the 2009 NBA draft, Mike D’Antoni having fallen in love with the mid-major Davidson sharpshooter.
Sitting at No. 8, the Knicks appeared to have their point guard to run D’Antoni’s breakneck offense. That is, until Warriors chief Don Nelson, also a run-and-gun aficionado, snatched Curry at No. 7. Former Knicks GM Donnie Walsh took long-forgotten forward Jordan Hill at No. 8.
A lesser-hyped draft miss occurred in 2008, also with Walsh in charge. Walsh targeted UCLA combo guard Russell Westbrook with the No. 6 pick. In the preceding weeks, mock drafts suggested Westbook would fall to the Knicks.
But Seattle/Oklahoma City GM Sam Presti didn’t make a name for himself for nothing, grabbing Westbrook two spots before at No. 4. Walsh settled for Danilo Gallinari — by the way, they weren’t interested in No. 5 pick Kevin Love — and the Italian Stallion’s career became riddled with injuries.
The 2015 draft became a mixed bag of lottery fortune. The Knicks won two of their last three games after holding the No. 1 lottery seed virtually all season. The 17-65 record dropped the Knicks to the No. 2 seed as the tanking Timberwolves sneaked to No. 1 with an expertly conceived 12-game losing streak to close. With its 25 percent chance, Minnesota captured the lottery and Karl-Anthony Towns.
But there’s a kicker, showing the lottery/draft still is a game of chance. The Knicks were fortuitous to fall back to the No. 4 pick after the ping-pong balls danced. That put them in position to draft 7-foot-3 stud Kristaps Porzingis. Had the club stayed at No. 2 or 3, sources maintain Jackson would’ve traveled the safer route and taken Jahlil Okafor or D’Angelo Russell, both of whom have disappointed.
And that 2015 lottery spelled disaster for the Magic, who sat at No. 5, lusting after Porzingis. Instead Orlando took European shooting guard bust Mario Hezonja. Orlando also was punished the year before, in 2014, when they got stuck with Aaron Gordon at No. 4 after the top three picks became Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker and Joel Embiid.
“Luck of the ping-pong balls,’’ Hill said.
There’s more prime examples of missing out on a gem by one or two spots. In 2005, Utah got Deron Williams at No. 3, New Orleans tabbed Chris Paul at No. 4 and Charlotte picked ex-Knicks journeyman Raymond Felton at No. 5.
Charlotte owner Michael Jordan got the short straw again in 2006 as LaMarcus Aldridge went to Portland at No. 2 and Adam Morrison to Charlotte at No. 3.
And the Warriors weren’t always so lucky. In 2010, after the Curry steal, DeMarcus Cousins went to Sacramento at No. 5 and the immortal Ekpe Udoh slid to the Warriors at No. 6.
Analyzing the standings, the Knicks can reasonably expect to finish anywhere from the fourth-worst record to the 12th-worst. That’s a lot of ping-pong balls hanging in the balance.