Two years ago, we at The Post developed an annual parlor game called “Guess the Yankees’ Ace!” and it really took off. Melissa McCarthy will play the role of me in the movie version this summer.
The 2017 version looks like a stinker, though. Masahiro Tanaka, coming off his third and best season in the majors, ranks as the overwhelming favorite. Unless you were playing the odds in hopes of financial gain, why would you select anyone else?
So let’s fast-forward to a year from now, when the Yankees’ pitching future appears cloudier than China on a bad smog day. Who will be the Yankees’ ace in 2018? That, friends, ranks as a wide-open question. The foundation to that answer lies in how all of the candidates perform this season.
Let’s give it a shot, from most likely to least.
1. Tanaka
The Yankees’ reigning ace spoke to reporters Wednesday in Tampa, at the team’s minor league complex, and said, “Obviously, I’m aware of what my contract says. But it’s something I put aside going into the season.”
You would expect such discipline from Tanaka. Yet that won’t stop the rest of the industry from discussing the 28-year-old’s compelling future, as his contract says that he can opt out following this season and forgo the three years and $67 million left on his original Yankees deal.
Never before has the free-agent market welcomed a high-end starting pitcher with such a known time-bomb element as the torn UCL in Tanaka’s right elbow. How do you evaluate that, even with a thorough physical exam?
Therefore, let’s speculate the Yankees will feel most comfortable going forward with Tanaka because so far, they’ve found the secret sauce to keep him on the mound often enough and their competitors might not share that comfort. And because they’ll have to assume some risk, just as they did (regrettably, mostly) when CC Sabathia used his opt-out as leverage in fall 2011, if they don’t develop good replacement options over this coming campaign.
2. Johnny Cueto
Since Sabathia re-upped in October 2011 to stay out of free agency, the Yankees have exhibited increased discipline when it comes to retaining their own players. In one instance, letting Robinson Cano go to Seattle without much of a fight, such discipline backfired considerably. In another, that of letting David Robertson sign with the White Sox and then signing Andrew Miller, it paid off brilliantly.
Where Tanaka falls on that spectrum will be determined largely by his 2017. Yet if Tanaka opts out and the Yankees do let him go elsewhere, they should be able to afford a replacement and still achieve their goal of getting under the $197 million luxury-tax threshold in 2018. Their plan calls for the salaries of Sabathia ($25 million), the released Alex Rodriguez ($21 million), Matt Holliday ($13 million) and two seven-figure commitments (Tyler Clippard and Michael Pineda) to come off the books and create the necessary breathing room.
Given the Steinbrenners’ intention to keep contending as they remake the club, though, they won’t let that ace’s salary slot sit empty. The dynamic Cueto, who can opt out of his deal with the Giants after this season, would give the Yankees some sizzle to go with his statistics.
3. Yu Darvish
Another pending free agent, he will try to put together his first full season since 2013. He pitched quite well for Texas last year after returning from Tommy John surgery.
4. Jake Arrieta
Yup, next offseason’s crop of free-agent starting pitchers looks far superior to this offseason’s group, of which Rich Hill led the way with a three-year, $48 million agreement to remain a Dodger. The Cubs’ Arrieta will have to pitch more like his 2015 National League Cy Young Award-winning self and less like his regressed 2016 self in order to cash in wholly.
5. Sabathia
Hey, he came a long way from a year ago, when he had to earn a job in the starting rotation. Perhaps he can keep climbing upward and, at age 37, sign a one-year deal to stay in pinstripes?
6. James Kaprielian
He hopes he’s back on track after missing most of 2016 with arm issues. The high upside remains.
7. Luis Severino
My top pick in this contest a year ago (yeesh), his ’16 success in the bullpen and failures out of the rotation may have created an unstoppable momentum toward a reliever’s role.
8. Pineda
For the widest-eyed optimists and most ardent disciples of FIP.
9. Justus Sheffield
Many scouts like him better than Clint Frazier, the outfielder who joined the lefty Sheffield as the key pieces in the deal that sent Miller to Cleveland.
10. (tie) Luis Cessa, Chad Green and Bryan Mitchell
All already have raised their ceilings in their brief stints as Yankees. Is there an ace in this trio, though?
13. Bartolo Colon
Just showing the man the proper respect, that’s all.