Game planning for your fantasy football finals with Blake Bortles, Allen Robinson and the Jaguars’ passing game is sort of like making dinner plans after your trip over Niagara Falls in a barrel: Chances are, you won’t have to worry about dinner, but if you somehow survive …
Well, hopefully you benched Bortles earlier this season for Matt Ryan or Kirk Cousins. Maybe you subbed in Joe Flacco at just the right time. Perhaps you caught a break by facing Drew Brees or Tom Brady during one of their recent down weeks.
However you made it to the end, at least you made it. And if you did so with Bortles or Robinson on your roster, consider it a Christmas miracle. Now get ready for an even bigger holiday gift.
The Jags’ passing game has been a Grinch all season. But remember, at the end of the story, “his heart grew three sizes that day.” Now, in fantasy championship week for most, Bortles’ boys meet their own personal Cindy Lou Who — the Titans’ pass defense.
The Titans don’t care if you’ve been naughty or nice. They’re going to give gifts to virtually anyone they meet. Across seven straight weeks in midseason, Tennessee gave up at least two passing touchdowns in every game. In five of those weeks, opposing QBs had 300-yard games stuffed in their stockings. In all seven, QBs racked up at least 18 fantasy points — 25 or better in three of those.
In the three weeks since that stretch, during which the Titans’ secondary has been better statistically, they had a bye, faced the Broncos with rookie backup Paxton Lynch under center, and squared off with ultimate game manager Alex Smith — in single-digit temperatures. Oh, and that game against the rookie, Lynch still threw for 334 yards.
In a Week 8 meeting between these teams, Bortles threw for 337 yards with three TDs and no interceptions — good for 29 fantasy points in traditional-scoring leagues.
So let’s say you’ve accepted Bortles as your Secret Santa. If he is racking up big numbers, he has to be throwing to someone, right? Chances are the primary someone will be Robinson, who hauled in nine catches for 107 yards and a score in Week 8. And don’t forget Marqise Lee, who has become the second-leading receiver (if you can call anything Jaguars’ pass-game related “leading”).
The Titans allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs. They give up the second-most to opposing WRs. But they’re stiff against the run (besides, the Jags can’t run the ball).
Stuff your stocking with these guys in your title game. They make cheap holiday gifts in daily formats, too — Bortles is $6,200 at FanDuel, $5,000 at DraftKings; Robinson is $5,600 FD, $4,600 at DK; Lee $5,900 at FD, $4,300 at DK.
Happy holidays, and enjoy finding a bunch of Jags in your gift bags.
Big Weeks
Tom Savage, QB, Texans
vs. Bengals (FanDuel $6,300/DraftKings $5,000)
Looks like an improvement over Brock Osweiler (which isn’t saying much). If you have expertly streamed your way to the title game, he is an option. Cheap option likely to show strong return in DFS.
Isaiah Crowell, RB, Browns
vs. Chargers (FD $5,700/DK $4,100)
Turning over your title chances to this guy is sort of like having your drunk uncle babysit the kid, but hey, it could work out. Lackluster effort by Chargers wouldn’t surprise, and they already rank near bottom third vs. opposing RBs.
Cole Beasley, WR, Cowboys
vs. Lions (FD $6,200/DK $4,900)
Likely to see a lot of Asa Jackson in coverage, which should work out well for Beasley, according to Pro Football Focus ratings.
Eric Ebron, TE, Lions
at Cowboys (FD $5,700/DK $3,600)
Exactly four catches for 30-something yards the past three weeks. Could find the end zone against the 26th-rated defense vs. fantasy TEs.
Small Weaks
Russell Wilson, QB, Seahawks
vs. Cardinals (FD $7,700/DK $6,300)
Still having nightmares about 6-6 overtime tie Week 7? Well, it shouldn’t be that bad, but don’t expect fireworks. Don’t like what we’ve seen from Russell & Co. over past five weeks.
Devonta Freeman, RB, Falcons
at Panthers (FD $7,800/DK $7,100)
Against a defense that is stiff against the run but weak against the pass, doesn’t make sense for a heavy dose of Freeman. And Tevin Coleman hanging around to steal some snaps.
Alshon Jeffery, WR, Bears
vs. Redskins (FD $7,000/DK $6,300)
A big fourth quarter last week doesn’t make us forget first 10 weeks before suspension. Redskins CB Josh Norman won’t make it any easier.
Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs
vs. Broncos (FD $6,500/DK $5,000)
Denver has given up just two tight end TDs all season. Kelce did get eight grabs for 101 yards in Week 12 meeting, but expect Broncos to scheme to stop that this time.
The Decision
Post fantasy Madman Drew Loftis and Roto Files columnist Jarad Wilk debate whom you should start this week:
Tyreek Hill vs. Ty Montgomery
Drew: Hill — The Chiefs’ breakout star has the worst possible matchup — facing the Broncos, the stingiest defense against opposing fantasy receivers — giving up a whopping 9.3 points fewer than the league average per game in standard leagues and 12.8 fewer in PPR. So why start him? Because he is not your normal WR. He is faster than most. He is just one missed tackle from a long score. He will get the ball by other means — reverses, screens, trick plays — than just downfield throws. And it seems over the past few weeks Alex Smith has realized it is acceptable to throw the ball deep. Sure, it is a bit risky, but so is relying on the erratic Green Bay running game.
Jarad: Montgomery — So, you’re suggesting owners take a risk, in the finals, because Hill is fast? You’re suggesting going against Montgomery, who has scored double-digit fantasy points the past two weeks, and an “erratic” Green Bay running game that has gained 428 yards over its past three games, in favor of a fast guy going against a stingy defense? How about a versatile player like Montgomery against a Minnesota defense playing without its biggest run-stopper (Tom Johnson), that has not held a rushing attack under 85 yards since Week 5 and has allowed 1,099 rushing yards since its Week 6 bye? They are allowing 122 yards per game over their past nine games after allowing just 77.8 over their first five games. You shouldn’t be taking risks in the finals. Go with Montgomery.
Last week: Jarad 15 (Bilal Powell — 84 rushing yards, 78 receiving yards), Drew 2 (Kenneth Farrow — 39 rushing yards, 14 receiving yards, one lost fumble)
Season: Drew leads series, 9-6