CHICAGO — Dexter Fowler responded to an industry-wide slap with his best season. He came back to the Cubs on what amounts to a one-year contract because even he said no other team really stepped up last winter to approach what he thought he was worth.
He will try again beginning in a few weeks to find a suitable contract, perhaps representing an option for the Mets should they pivot away from Yoenis Cespedes.
For now, the Mets have Cespedes prioritized as their main piece this offseason. The sides like each other, and as Terry Collins told me a few days ago by phone, “When he left, he said, ‘See you in spring training.’ I think he would like to stay. He liked New York a lot.”
But Cespedes will opt out of the final two years at $47.5 million of his contract because he wants a bigger payday, with four years at $100 million possible — maybe more. Mets officials have suggested the bevy of outfield bats available could allow them to wait out the market and see if Cespedes actually can find that much or a fifth year. That worked last offseason, when a strong market never materialized for Cespedes and he ultimately came back to the Mets on a three-year, $75 million pact that enabled him to test his value again now.
But there are a few risks the Mets face if they want to slow-play Cespedes:
1. The other big righty bats on the free-agent market (Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Mark Trumbo) project best now as first basemen or DHs. Thus, to make them work, the Mets probably would either have to trade or non-tender Lucas Duda, who if healthy remains a relatively low-cost power option. Righty bats such as Milwaukee’s Ryan Braun and Detroit’s J.D. Martinez and Justin Upton are available, but it would cost prospects as the Mets are trying to regenerate their farm system. Remember, the Brewers wanted the Mets’ best prospect, Amed Rosario, as part of a Jonathan Lucroy deal, so Braun might not be easy to pry.
2. I believe Cespedes will go to the high bidder despite all the proclamations of New York love. So maybe the Mets will not get a final chance to match what he is offered or won’t want to match it, and if that is deep into the offseason, other opportunities will have evaporated. They could say they are going with Jay Bruce, Michael Conforto, Curtis Granderson and Juan Lagares, but that is tougher for a win-now team.
One alternative would be Fowler, but that would tilt the Mets toward a different type of offense. The Mets have yet to reveal how much they are willing to spend. For example, if they are budgeting $100 million for their offense, would they be better off investing in just Cespedes or, say, Fowler and re-signing Neil Walker, which likely would come in south of $100 million?
They are switch-hitters and so are Asdrubal Cabrera and Jose Reyes. This would remove a big slugger, but could give the Mets a more diverse and deeper group (including the bench).
Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein refused to discuss Fowler’s future while the World Series still is ongoing.
But unless a new collective bargaining agreement is completed quickly with different rules, Chicago will put the qualifying offer on Fowler. The Cubs did so last year, and since that comes with draft-pick compensation, Fowler’s market was chilled.
He was on the brink of a three-year, $33 million deal with Baltimore in February, but Fowler would not sign that without an opt-out clause. So he returned to the Cubs for a deal that guaranteed $13 million, but had an opt-out he surely will trigger. He probably will be in line for something that could go to four years at $60 million as a leadoff hitter with patience, extra-base power, better defense (after he played deeper this year), speed and a reputation as an excellent teammate. The Cubs, with Albert Almora ready to play center, could pass.
“I believe God has a plan for me. I didn’t get the long-term deal, but I came back to this team, and I am playing in the World Series,” said Fowler, who will turn 31 in March. “I don’t know what the future holds. I will have to go through it — like last offseason.”
Padres stuck picking up tab for rivals
James Shields will not be the first to use a player option to stay in a deal rather than face the near certainty of getting less in free agency. Vernon Wells could have opted out after the 2011 campaign with three years at $63 million left, but saw he would not meet that in free agency and stayed with the Angels.
Shields is unique because his decision immediately will hurt two organizations, which Wells did as well when he eventually was traded to the Yankees. Shields was dealt from the Padres to the White Sox during last season, when he might have been the majors’ worst pitcher (4-12, 6.77 ERA). He has two years at $44 million left, and both teams will pay about half of that.
San Diego does not have a single 40-man-roster player signed next year, yet according to the figures from Cot’s Contracts, they have $32.95 million owed for released or traded-away players (Shields, Jedd Gyorko, Matt Kemp, Hector Olivera and Melvin Upton), screaming about what a disaster its attempted quick buildup was.
The White Sox also have failed with payroll injections the past two offseasons and essentially are off the radar in Chicago with the Cubs in the World Series. But they will be a more interesting team this offseason as they decide whether to keep going for it or attempt a salary dump and prospect add. They would love to move Shields, but good luck. More pertinent is whether they will trade Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, Melky Cabrera, Adam Eaton, Todd Frazier and David Robertson.
Raiders coach familiar with Schwarber’s journey
Rod Woodson has been busy this week as the Raiders’ assistant defensive backs coach, getting his group ready for Sunday’s game against the Buccaneers. But he was aware of Kyle Schwarber’s recovery from torn knee ligaments to make it back in time for the World Series and understands Schwarber’s diligence and passion to get back.
“You want to make the most of the rehab because you never know when the opportunity to go to the Super Bowl or, for Kyle, the World Series is ever coming again,” Woodson said.
Woodson tore a knee ligament after getting juked out in the open field by Barry Sanders late in the first quarter of the Steelers’ 1995 season opener. He was told his season was over, but Pittsburgh did not put him on injured reserve, and he returned to play in the Super Bowl against the Cowboys.
Schwarber tore his ACL and LCL in the Cubs’ third game, was told his season was over and made it back for the World Series.
“As a competitor, you want to be part of it. You don’t want to be an innocent bystander,” Woodson said. “It is bittersweet. You want to see your teammates succeed and win, but it is hurtful to your pride that it is being done without you. So you put it into overdrive to get back if possible.
“Whether the Super Bowl or the World Series, if you can get to that stage, you want to contribute to help the team win. It is the nature of our competitive drive as athletes — you want to prove everyone wrong who said you couldn’t come back, and you want to be part of this great thing.”