The four-game sweep the Yankees endured last weekend at Fenway Park had overtones of when Boston historically rallied from an 0-3 deficit to win the 2004 AL pennant.
Once the Yankees blew the very winnable first game in that quartet – Game 4 in 2004, Thursday night this time – the snowball began downhill.
There were many reasons for the twin Yankees failures, but at the heart was how few trustworthy pitchers — notably starters — Joe Torre had then and Joe Girardi has now to deal with the circular excellence of both Red Sox lineups.
In 2004, Javier Vazquez was deemed unreliable, Kevin Brown was a mess and Orlando Hernandez broke down, leaving Mike Mussina and Jon Lieber.
Last weekend, Masahiro Tanaka and CC Sabathia sandwiched rookies Luis Cessa and Bryan Mitchell. In the small picture, that led to the Red Sox pretty much ending the Yankees’ season. But even with David Ortiz’s retirement, Boston’s lineup projects as pretty fierce into the foreseeable future with Andrew Benintendi, Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley Jr., Dustin Pedroia and Hanley Ramirez.
After 2004, the Yankees reacted – or overreacted – by trading for Randy Johnson and signing Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright.
What will they do this offseason to deal with Boston and the rest of the league in 2017?
“I won’t recommend something that doesn’t make sense,” general manager Brian Cashman said by phone.
Translation: Avoid over-reaction.
But at least one starter feels like a must. The Yankees farm system is now deep enough that they could be in play for the Rays’ Chris Archer or Alex Cobb, the White Sox’s Chris Sale or Jose Quintana, and the Marlins’ Jose Fernandez.
Remember, though, this is going to be arguably the worst free-agent starter market ever — the fragile Rich Hill or Ivan Nova might be the best options — so trade prices are going to be exorbitant. Why wouldn’t, for example, the White Sox ask for Gary Sanchez for Sale, because the lefty is essentially a holy grail: An in-his-prime, consistently excellent ace on a team-friendly contract? Act like you were Chicago’s GM: What would you want for that rarity?
The Yankees could think about trading for a quality innings eater such as Minnesota’s Ervin Santana or a rebound candidate such as Oakland’s Sonny Gray or flip a young position prospect or two (Jorge Mateo, for example) for a starter potentially on the rise such as Sean Manaea of the A’s or Carlos Rodon of the White Sox.
But they probably will have to add because right now the sure things are Tanaka, Sabathia and Michael Pineda, and one of the most shocking aspects of this season is that those three medical red flags are going to combine for 90 starts. What are the chances that occurs again in 2017?
Behind that trio are Cessa, Mitchell, Chad Green and Luis Severino, who have yet to declare if they are starters or power relievers. The highest ceiling belongs still to Severino, the most intriguing is Cessa, who only added a slider to his arsenal this year. Cashman believes each has what it takes to start: at least three pitches, swing-and-miss and/or groundball-inducing traits and the ability to throw strikes consistently.
“They are still young and developing,” Cashman said. “They have attributes to pitch every five days at the major league level. Performance will determine if that is so.”
Both Chance Adams and Jordan Montgomery blossomed this season. The lefty Montgomery is viewed as a back-end guy while the converted reliever Adams exhibited stuff (13-1, 2.33 ERA, .169 average against at Single-A and Double-A) to suggest better.
The Yankees had hoped James Kaprielian, the 16th overall pick in 2015, could come fast even this year, especially after his first three electric starts at Single-A (eight hits, 22 strikeouts in 18 innings). But an elbow injury shut him down thereafter. He is in a full throwing program and said to be doing well, but concern lingers if he needs surgery and, even at best, he lost a full season of development.
The other high-end possibility with a chance to be a factor next year is lefty Justus Sheffield, a key piece from Cleveland in the Andrew Miller deal. But he is just 20 with one start above Single-A.
All of this gives the Yankees a strong collection of potential starter arms moving forward, but also the kind of inexperience, uncertainty and fragility to force them to find surer assets for 2017.