Every fantasy football owner wants to have an edge heading into his or her draft. From zero-RB to late-round QB to get-a-wide receiver ASAP, the theories and strategies to a successful fantasy draft are plenty. But none is failsafe.
We already have experimented with late-round quarterback vs. early QB pick, and the late-round roster won easily. Now let’s try out a few others and see how they go.
Early tight end
First, we have preached the penalty of taking a tight end too early. But here, the Madman will do something he never does: Draft Rob Gronkowski. And to make building a winner even harder, we will do this in a non-PPR league.
We’re given the 11th pick in a 12-team redraft. To ensure we get Gronk, we’re going to have to pick him first. This being a standard league, that shouldn’t be a problem. But somehow, we have to pass on DeAndre Hopkins at 11 to get Gronk. Silliness. But at least we have our man.
After we get A.J. Green early in the second round, which is great, then the problems start. Come the end of the third, it’s slim pickings. We don’t want a lot of the WRs left — Julian Edelman (worry about injury, non-PPR), Doug Baldwin (overvalued), Jarvis Landry (non-PPR). We also don’t like our RB choices — Carlos Hyde and Jonathan Stewart — more than Demaryius Thomas.
We take Thomas hoping Hyde slips to us on the turn. He doesn’t. Now we like no one early in the fourth. All are either overrated or could be had a round later — Jeremy Hill, Matt Forte, Baldwin, etc. We like Eric Decker, but not to start the fourth round. So we take a QB who has slipped past his early-third ADP — Cam Newton.
We’re headed to the fifth round with no RBs, so we unwillingly have engaged in the zero-RB approach. In a PPR, we still stand a chance — with Danny Woodhead, Duke Johnson, Giovani Bernard and other pass-catching backs available. In a non-PPR, this is a terrible start. It’s so bad, we cringe when someone takes Arian Foster before our pick because this is the one time we wanted him.
Instead we reach for Frank Gore (because he has no real competition on the Colts and should get goal-line carries), then sigh deeply and pick Matt Jones with the second pick in the sixth. He had bad efficiency numbers last year and already is fighting a shoulder injury, but you take what you can get at this point, and chances are he is the Redskins’ chief ball carrier.
We get Woodhead at pick No. 83, who was a top-10 RB even in standard leagues last season — alas, we expect a regression in TDs for him, and more for Melvin Gordon, but desperate times …
The good news is, we have six of seven primary starting positions filled. We just have to find a Flex and build a bench, hoping our WR/QB/TE combo can overcome our weak RBs. We get sort of lucky later when we get Torrey Smith as a backup WR at pick No. 107, not exactly a bargain but with upside, then Justin Forsett at 110, still in the top RB mix for the Ravens after being cut and re-signed. Here’s what we end up with:
QB: Cam Newton
RB: Frank Gore
RB: Matt Jones
WR: A.J. Green
WR: Demaryius Thomas
TE: Rob Gronkowski
Flex: Danny Woodhead
DEF: Packers
K: Justin Tucker
Bench: DeSean Jackson, Justin Forsett, Torrey Smith, DeAndre Washington, Kirk Cousins, Dwayne Allen, Mike Wallace
Because we reached early for TE, the value in the fourth round dictated we reach early for a QB — which we normally wouldn’t do, even at this value — and as a result, we are remarkably weak at RB.
No wide receivers
Next, let’s try something remarkably contrarian: the inverse of zero-RB: a zero-WR approach. Normally, you shouldn’t enter any draft with such particulars in mind, but for the sake of our experiment, we will throw out that rule. And we’ll do it in the most challenging of circumstances: a PPR league.
Picking from the sixth spot in a 12-team league, we get Ezekiel Elliott, then Mark Ingram and next Carlos Hyde. Satisfactory. We can’t wait any longer when Eric Decker is on the board in the fourth, so our zero-WR lasts for three rounds. We end up with this:
QB: Eli Manning
RB: Ezekiel Elliott
RB: Mark Ingram
WR: Eric Decker
WR: Larry Fitzgerald
TE: Zach Miller
Flex: Carlos Hyde
DEF: Vikings
K: Cairo Santos
Bench: Giovani Bernard, Kevin White, Tavon Austin, Kamar Aiken, Eric Ebron, Matthew Stafford, Wendell Smallwood
Overall, we think we can do OK with this squad. Compared to a zero-RB team, though, in a PPR format, we’ll take our zero-RB result (picking fourth overall):
QB: Aaron Rodgers
RB: Danny Woodhead
RB: Duke Johnson
WR: DeAndre Hopkins
WR: Keenan Allen
TE: Coby Fleener
Flex: Jarvis Landry
DEF: Broncos
K: Matt Bryant
Bench: Giovani Bernard, Charles Sims, Kamar Aiken, Zach Miller, James White, Pierre Garcon, Andy Dalton
The suspended guys
Now, just for fun, let’s try something weird: Getting the banned back together. Here, we’re going to draft top players who will begin the season suspended. The primary targets are Tom Brady, Josh Gordon (both out for the first four games) and Le’Veon Bell (out the first three). The theory is: You cobble together working parts to hopefully steal a win or two the first few weeks, then you run roughshod over the league the rest of the season.
For this to work, you need to pick late in the first round and early in the second round, where you can snag Bell, so we sign up for a mock draft at ESPN where you can pick your draft position. We choose 11 and take Bell there.
We snag Allen Robinson and Jarvis Landry with our next two picks, then cross our fingers and hope Brady is there at the end of the fifth round, with the intention of taking Gordon shortly thereafter.
Turns out, much better options than Brady are there. But to ensure we can fulfill this task (knowing Brady and Gordon will be gone when our next set of picks come around), we have to take Brady over Andrew Luck and Drew Brees at 59 overall. Next, because Gordon is off a big preseason game, and his recent average draft position (ADP) put him ahead of our next pick at the end of the seventh, we have to take him early in the sixth.
ADP - Average Draft Position
In other words, we’re playing from behind way too early in the draft to make this approach acceptable. We end up with something not unexpected: a shallow team to start the season, but something deep later if sleeper picks pans out. The Week 1 starting lineup looks like this:
QB: Jameis Winston
RB: DeAngelo Williams
RB: Carlos Hyde
WR: Allen Robinson
WR: Jarvis Landry
TE: Zach Ertz
Flex: Tyler Lockett
DEF: Broncos
K: Cairo Santos
Bench: Tom Brady, Le’Veon Bell, Josh Gordon, Kamar Aiken, Devontae Booker, Jordan Howard, Jordan Cameron