There is a common term you might hear from us statheads who talk fantasy sports: regression to the mean.
This is a real thing. It certainly is a valuable approach in fantasy baseball — where, by and large, veteran players eventually will perform close to their average across a broad period of time.
Though the performance of football players is vastly more reliant on their teammates than in baseball, identifying regression candidates still has merit.
One team in particular has been the focus of a lot of regression talk: the Jaguars. The trio of quarterback Blake Bortles and receivers Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns surprised most with their blockbuster 2015 fantasy seasons (OK, Hurns wasn’t a blockbuster, but he exceeded expectations). So it is natural to assume regression — after all, players who weren’t great before, then suddenly got great probably did so through a series of unlikely events (injury, scheduling, etc.).
But the concern around the Jaguars is deeper than that. First, the Jags trailed often last year — they ranked 31st in first-quarter points — and racked up a lot of their points (real and fantasy) while playing from behind.
Why will it be any different this season? Well, the Jaguars made significant defensive upgrades in the offseason, as well as bolstering the offensive line and the running game with the addition of Chris Ivory. This means they shouldn’t trail as often (meaning less passing), and the running game should be improved (again, less passing).
Robinson is a talent, and that alone — never mind that is Bortles’ favorite target, including in the red zone — means he still is a viable receiver. With an average draft position (ADP) of 16.8 in 12-team, standard-scoring leagues, he is maybe rated a touch above his actual value. He is at the back end of a group — with A.J. Green, Brandon Marshall and Dez Bryant — the Madman feels comfortable taking early in the second round before the dropoff to injury risks Jordy Nelson, Alshon Jeffery and Sammy Watkins.
Hurns seems to be the one paying the price for the perceived upcoming regression. He was ranked 14th among fantasy WRs last season, but is being drafted the No. 35 WR (ADP 84.4) this season. The Madman has him slotted in as what should be the 59th pick as the 31st WR. In other words, we expect his numbers to dip, but slightly less than do other drafters.
So sure, you can expect a decline in overall numbers from Allen & Allen, but there has been an overcompensation for that regression in the draft status of Robinson or Hurns. So pick your Jags with comfort, friends. It is not as bad as feared. Practice discretion when addressing the regression.