If it seems like the margin for error with the Mets is thin, well, that’s not exactly true. “Thin” implies there’s at least a sliver. “Thin” suggests at least a hair’s breadth of room between surreal and slapstick. When the fact is, it’s even slimmer than that.
It isn’t just that the run differential is only plus-20, which means that by rights the Mets at 47-41 are actually a game ahead of where they ought to be according to Pythagorean won-loss calculus. And it isn’t just that the Mets have been comically awful with runners in scoring position, which makes baseball a much harder game to play.
Consider this: The Mets have 47 wins, and they have recorded saves in 32 of them (31 for Jeurys Familia, one for Addison Reed). And while they have blown six saves this year, none of them have come in the ninth inning, so they aren’t exactly laden with losses that keep you up half the night.
Only Miami (33 saves in 47 wins) has a higher percentage of saves-to-wins in the major leagues. Think about this: There are four teams in the National League that have higher win totals than the Mets – the Giants (57 wins, 26 saves); the Nationals (54 wins, 25 saves); the Cubs (53 wins, only 15 – 15! – saves); and the Dodgers (51 wins, 27 saves).
Bottom line? The Mets never blow anyone out. They’re lucky if they have one carefree win a week. Think about this: The Braves are, by almost every measure, woeful. Yet they have had 14 wins that didn’t require a save – or exactly one fewer than the Mets. The Reds have had 18 such wins, the Twins 19.
So you can look at this two ways:
1) Familia, without a blown save in 31 opportunities, is far and away the Mets’ most valuable player. And that may well be true, because it’s frightening to think about what the Mets’ record would look like if he wasn’t as close to lights-out as the position allows. More to the point though …
2) The Mets rely on their starting pitchers to keep them in games more than just about any team ever has. We already knew that, of course, which is why there are so many alarm bells poised to rattle whenever a bone spur appears in this elbow, or when fatigue creeps into that arm, or when numbness arrives in those fingertips.
This is all the more remarkable when you consider that the bridges available between the Mets’ mostly reliable starters and the thus-far ultra-reliable back-end pairing of Reed and Familia have been, at best, mixed bags. Hansel Robles forever seems poised to break through … usually the moment before he blows up. Antonio Bastardo has been a dumpster fire. Jerry Blevins has been mostly terrific, but he can’t pitch against every lefty every night.
That’s the way it’s been across 88 games. And that’s the way it’s going to remain for the final 74. The Mets offense is what it is – when the ball is flying out, they can score in bunches; when it’s not, it’s a hunger strike. The grind of this can chew up a starting staff mostly consisting of young arms when it understands it has to be precise every night, can’t afford (usually) to spot the opponent too many (or any) runs.
And whenever you attach the word “grind” to “young arms,” you’re asking for a thousand miles of hard road.
But that’s the Mets. Even with Harvey sidelined, even with Zack Wheeler still probably six weeks (at best) from making his return to Flushing, even with the decidedly pedestrian Logan Verrett presently anchoring the No. 5 slot in the rotation, it will be the team’s starting pitchers who will determine who the Mets are as a team, and where they are come the end of September.
Mostly, that means Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom, Steven Matz and Bartolo Colon have to channel the better versions of themselves most of the rest of the way if the Mets want to stay inside the NL playoff picture. It means maintaining first-half form for Syndergaard and Colon, returning to the form of April and May for Matz, and for deGrom to consistently bring 2015-vintage stuff and command to the park every fifth day as he did against the Cubs a few weeks ago but only infrequently the rest of the time.
This is nothing new, of course, because this is what the Mets signed up for. Everything they were built to be was constructed around a foundation of young pitching, and it landed them in the World Series a year ago, and it has kept them in play so far this year. And the old adage has always said: Pitching wins in October.
But it doesn’t much help widen margin for error in July. That’s wafer-thin. And even that doesn’t describe just how thin it really is.