The NBA’s annual meat market starts at 12:01 a.m. Friday, and figure within seconds players, agents and team executives will be chatting, schmoozing, promising and lying all over the landscape.
And multiple sources swear some of the players talking will not be named Kevin Durant.
Of course, the Thunder superstar is the guy on everyone’s mind. LeBron James, who reaffirmed his status as “Best Basketball Player in the World Even If He Doesn’t Shoot from 58 Feet,” is headed back to Cleveland. Opting out of his final year, he could sign a two-year deal worth $54 million, then opt out next year and do it all over again. But he will stay in Cleveland, even if he once called the Garden the “mecca.”
So that brings us back to Durant, who headlines the overriding story of this year’s free agency with its exploding $94 million salary cap, a figure that will rise next year to an estimated $110 million. Yes, curse your parents now for not letting you be born 6-foot-8 or better or for making you “study.”
So here are some story lines for the NBA’s 2016 free-agent frenzy, which, beyond Durant and James, really has an average gathering.
The Kevin Durant Recruitment Tour
The big question around Durant is does he sign short-term or long-term? Figure short-term. He can sign now for $153 million over five years with the Thunder or go elsewhere for $114 million over four. He’ll make $26.6 million next season and if he opts out and goes through this again, he’ll make significantly more, based on the expanded cap.
Durant has granted audiences to six teams — the Thunder, with whom he’ll meet first Thursday, the Warriors, Celtics, Heat, Clippers and Spurs. The Knicks want in and Carmelo Anthony said he spoke with his Team USA teammate so technically (though not officially) there is a seventh team.
Boston is dying for a superstar. And therein lies a problem. There is no Russell Westbrook, Stephen Curry or even Carmelo Anthony to forge a 1-2 (let alone 1-2-3) assault with, and that makes Boston a hard sell. The Warriors and Spurs would need to gut their benches, although there still could be a formidable alignment, especially in Golden State. The Clippers likely would need to lose Blake Griffin. The Heat always seem to find a way to make it work and the whole lack of state taxes is an appeal. The Thunder got better by acquiring Victor Oladipo.
There is a school of thought that makes sense — Durant uses this summer as a trial balloon, gets his $26.6 million and then tries it again next year when Westbrook also is up and probably out the Thunder door, headlining a ridiculously deep point-guard class.
Which brings us to another key free-agent scenario this summer: point guards.
If you need a ‘1,’ wait a year and get a ‘10’
The pickings at point guard this year have Mike Conley at the top followed by Rajon Rondo. Then there is a drop-off — one website has Jeremy Lin and Deron Williams ranked 3-4 and New York has seen that, although a Lin marriage with the Nets is not absurd if they fail in their quest for whom several sources maintain is their preferred choice: Rondo. Lin and Nets coach Kenny Atkinson have a good history.
Conley could be headed back to Memphis and the Knicks may have played a big part. There was legitimate concern Conley and the Knicks were headed for a union, but once the Knicks acquired Derrick Rose that was moot. Dallas will kick the tires.
You can rule out the Mavs and Rondo getting together, unless you are into a reality show containing unspeakable violence between a player and a head coach. Rondo indicated he’d like to play in New York, but does that also mean Brooklyn? The safe bet has him back in Sacramento.
So if you are a team looking for a point guard, give it a year. Why? The market next year should have Westbrook, Curry, Paul, Jeff Teague and George Hill just for starters.
They may be free, but they are restricted
This is a class dominated by quality restricted free agents, meaning their current teams can match any offer. Now unless offers are downright ludicrous — or if say a player who created something like Linsanity ticked off his owner — most restricted free agents stay put.
As former Nets assistant GM Bobby Marks, now of The Vertical, pointed out, “The last two players selected in the first round who did not have their offer sheets matched were Jarrett Jack (2009) and Linas Kleiza (2010). Both players signed offer sheets with Toronto.”
So there will be a rush for a half dozen or so unrestricted free agents, but with all the money flowing in from the new TV deal, figure they stay put although it will be pricier than ever.
The best of the restricted class: Detroit center Andre Drummond, Golden State small forward Harrison Barnes, Washington shooting guard Bradley Beal, Orlando shooting guard Evan Fournier (who is widely coveted), Lakers point guard Jordan Clarkson, Golden State center Festus Ezeli, Portland wing Allen Crabbe, Oklahoma City guard Dion Waiters and Boston forward Jared Sullinger. At 26, Ezeli is the graybeard of the group — the others named all are 24 or younger.
Max guys not named Scherzer
There have been just 25 in three years, since 2012. And of those 25 players who got them, 19 made All-Star teams. Marks estimated there could be as many as 12 max contracts handed out this summer. And of those 12 players, six of them never have been All-Stars.
But that half dozen, including some unrestricted types, will fetch a lot of attention: Hassan Whiteside, Nicolas Batum, Beal, Fournier, Conley and Barnes.
Summer of uncertainty
Lastly, despite all the money pouring in — and despite teams needing to spend at least $84 million on salaries — execs could go cautiously and prefer short-term, big-money deals, rather than go for contract length. A player might be overpaid this year and then come off the books for next, when there will be even more money — and a deeper, better overall class. Again, next year we could be looking at LeBron and Durant again, along with all those point guards plus Gordon Hayward and Paul Millsap and … well, the list is impressive.
But there is uncertainty as well about the CBA. The players union can opt out after next season so maybe there will be new rules in play and all that could make owners cautious.
But one thing remains certain:
If you don’t live in Cleveland, LeBron James will not be on your side next season.