Whether Alex Rodriguez ever makes the Hall of Fame really comes down to the mindset of future voting bodies.
Does the election of a suspected player such as Mike Piazza lead eventually to the induction of players with even stronger ties to illegal performance enhancers, such as Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, and does that eventually make it more likely that even a player suspended for association with PEDs, such as A-Rod or Manny Ramirez, will have a stronger chance at Cooperstown?
Because based strictly on accomplishment, Rodriguez is a Hall no-brainer, with three MVPs and what probably will end up being 700-plus homers, and what already is better than 2,000 RBIs and 3,000 hits.
Carlos Beltran, CC Sabathia and Mark Teixeira do not have such open-and-shut statistical cases. At this point, they are assured of getting on a ballot some day. But probably have to do more – or even a lot more – to make their candidacies more alluring.
You can see where their ability to help their historic positions coincide with helping the 2016 Yankees. For if, say, Teixeira hit 30 homers, Beltran 25 and Sabathia won 15, then the Yankees’ AL East title hopes would be elevated considerably.
So where does this trio stand on the road to Cooperstown?
Carlos Beltran
Of the three, Beltran has the best shot. He might already have done enough to warrant election. Are we really going to have a quarter-of-a-century period in which just one primary center fielder — Ken Griffey Jr. — is elected to the Hall? Of a next group that includes players such as Jim Edmonds, Andruw Jones, Bernie Williams, Johnny Damon, Kenny Lofton and Torii Hunter, Beltran is the most attractive candidate.
Though Williams fell off the ballot after just two years, he was a borderline Hall of Fame candidate, and, to me, Beltran is a better version of Williams. Like Williams, he is a switch-hitter from Puerto Rico with patience and power — just significantly more power. Williams was fast, but didn’t have the technique to capitalize on the speed. Beltran is one of the most successful base stealers in major league history. To qualify in the Elias rankings for all-time base-stealing percentage, a player needs 300 steals. Beltran became the all-time leader the moment he reached that total in 2012, and his 86.4 percent success rate is not likely to be bettered any time soon. Tim Raines (84.7) is second all time and Jacoby Ellsbury (83.4) is second among active players.
Williams won one more Gold Gloves (4-3) than Beltran, but Beltran was the superior fielder. Williams was a superb postseason performer, but Beltran has been better — and if you are defining Beltran on one called third strike against Adam Wainwright, that would be like summing up Russell Wilson’s career by the goal-line interception he threw at the end of Super Bowl XLIX.
Beltran has never finished better than fourth in the MVP voting. But he has as many seasons (10) with an OPS-plus of 120 (20 percent better than the league factoring in ballpark and league) or more as Hall members Tony Perez, Jim Rice and Willie Stargell plus the defense and base stealing. He says he wants to play beyond the 2016 expiration of his Yankees contract.
“When I retire, I will see what happens [with the Hall],” Beltran said. “I have numbers after 18 years that some say compare to Hall of Famers. How do people perceive that? I don’t know.”
CC Sabathia
One candidacy to watch for Sabathia will be Roy Halladay, who is Hall eligible in 2019. They were workhorse aces at a similar period who had 10-season peaks (Halladay from 2002-11, Sabathia from 2003-12). Even Sabathia says, “Doc was better.” And Halladay was — with an ERA-plus of 148 in that period (48 percent better than the MLB average with league and ballpark factored in). Sabathia had an ERA-plus of 130 in his peak with roughly the same innings as Halladay.
Voters are always trying to weigh how much to value peak vs. accumulation. Some voters might hold lack of accumulation against Halladay, who went 203-105 with an ERA-plus of 131 before retiring after his age-36 season. But Hall of Famer Don Drysdale was 209-166 with a 121 ERA-plus.
Sabathia’s 10-year peak is better than some Hall of Famers. But unlike Halladay, who retired before regression impacted his stats, Sabathia has seen his career ERA-plus fall from 125 to 117 over the past three years. There are plenty of Hall of Fame pitchers who had an ERA-plus of 117 or less, but six of them won 300 games, which Sabathia is not going to do. Enough voters still value wins to make the milestone meaningful for a candidacy.
Sabathia is 214-129 as he enters his age-35 campaign. He would be greatly helped if that knee brace that aided late last season enables him to have a few Andy Pettitte seasons of above-average sturdiness that gets him to, say, 250 wins without his other career numbers being harmed too badly. Sabathia has a Cy Young and four other top-five finishes, was the ace on a champion and was instrumental in getting Milwaukee to the playoffs for the first time in 26 years.
“I am not thinking about that [the Hall] yet,” Sabathia said. “Maybe when my career is over.”
Mark Teixeira
Teixeira grew up an Orioles fan in Maryland and became a switch-hitter largely because Eddie Murray was one. Teixeira’s career OPS-plus of 129 is the same as Murray’s. But Murray bettered 500 homers and 3,000 hits, and had an eight-year run in which he finished no worse than 11th in the MVP balloting and then added another fifth place later in his career.
Teixeira acknowledges he is not getting to 3,000 hits, but has his eyes on 500 homers (he is at 394). He has finished in the top 11 in MVP voting just twice. His OPS-plus is much like other excellent two-way first basemen Keith Hernandez and John Olerud, neither of whom ever reached even 11 percent in Hall voting.
Teixeira says he wants to play another five years and will have to produce a lot of greatness in what should be his twilight to have a strong Hall shot.
“It’s a natural thing as a baseball player to at least think about the Hall,” Teixeira said. “It is, after all, the ultimate goal.”