The Yankees did the near impossible last year – they reached the playoffs without a single starting pitcher combining durability and excellence.
No Yankees starter reached the relatively low bar of both having qualified for the ERA title and having posted an average or better ERA once adjusted for ballparks and leagues.
In the 21 seasons of the wild-card era (since 1995), only the 2015 Yankees reached the playoffs without at least one such starter, though three (the 1996 Mariners, 1998 Giants and 1999 A’s) would have if there were two wild cards per league in those seasons.
This is a period in which bullpens are deep and used in a greater way than ever, and a team can win with tepid starting pitching and an elite bullpen, as the Royals did last year. But even now the surest predictor of success remains rotation sturdiness/excellence. Keep in mind: Kansas City had two starters qualify for the ERA title with an above-average adjusted ERA (Edinson Volquez and Yordano Ventura).
Consider just the sturdiness part as an example: Nine of the 10 teams that finished with the most innings by starters last year had winning records, and seven made the playoffs.
The season is essentially a puzzle of roughly 1,450 innings. The more of those thrown at a high level by starters, the easier it is to line up a relief corps properly and not burn it out. Eight teams in 2015 had at least three starters qualify for the ERA title with an adjusted ERA of average or better. Only the 80-82 Rays didn’t exceed .500, and five of those clubs made the playoffs.
Which brings us back to the Yankees. Because their old problem is their new problem. The same rotation is back. That Luis Severino, who turns 22 on Saturday, is the best bet to perform the combo in 2016, though he has yet to pitch a full major league season or exceed the combined 161 2/3 innings he threw in the minors and majors last year (162 is needed to qualify for the ERA title), exemplifies how red-flag shaky the Yankees starting contingent is.
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Yes, the Yankees just might have the best closing trio ever in Aroldis Chapman (assuming a limited or no suspension), Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances. But to get to them and not overuse them, the Yankees rotation has to be good and/or a bunch of relievers named Nick Goody and Jacob Lindgren and Nick Rumbelow better deliver impressive bridge innings.
In a competitive AL, in general, and the AL East, in specific, the likelihood that the Yankees can make the playoffs two consecutive years without at least a starter or two giving them the tandem of durability and distinction is poor. So what are the chances? Some thoughts (odds in parentheses of qualifying for the ERA title and having a better than average adjusted ERA):
1. Luis Severino (2-1)
We think the current game is a young man’s sport. But no pitcher 22 or under has hit both criteria in the last two seasons. The last Yankee to do it was Dave Righetti in 1981. The last Yankee righty to do it was Bill Stafford in 1961. Severino was impressive in 11 major league starts. What we can’t know is what it will look like over a full season.
2. Masahiro Tanaka (3-1)
He has pitched well when he has pitched, but he did not qualify for the ERA title in either of his first two seasons. He had bone spurs removed from his elbow, but the ligament remains a concern.
3. Michael Pineda (7-2)
He is talking 200 innings. That would be a first. He qualified for the ERA title as a rookie in 2011 and not since. By the time his 2015 season was done he was 10 percent under the MLB average for adjusted ERA. There might be an ace in there. But it has yet to show itself consistently.
4. Nathan Eovaldi (4-1)
He has qualified for the ERA title once, and his career adjusted ERA is six percent under average. What tempts is that 12-start streak last year when Eovaldi refined his splitter and went 8-0 with a 2.93 ERA and a .584 OPS against. But shortly after that he came down with elbow inflammation that ended his season.
5. CC Sabathia (6-1)
Think about everything wrong with his 2015 and know this: He was the only Yankee who qualified for the ERA title. In his first four Yankees seasons, Sabathia averaged 226 innings with an adjusted ERA 35 percent better than the MLB average. But his adjusted ERA is 18 percent under average the past three years. He did pitch to a 2.17 ERA over his final five starts while wearing a knee brace that brought him stability. Was his alcohol rehab stay a net plus or minus?
6. Ivan Nova (9-1)
If Nova is starting, someone else is hurt. Do the Yankees get his best version in his walk year? Remember, the Yankees were trying to trade him all offseason and it would not be shocking if he were moved if he pitched well in the spring. Behind Nova, the Yankees have Bryan Mitchell and – perhaps later in the year – James Kaprielian, and it is unlikely they or anyone else could get close to qualifying for the ERA title.