Ike Davis should be in the prime of his career. He turns 29 next month. Instead, he signed a minor league deal with the Rangers, for whom he has almost no chance to stick as a first baseman/DH, assuming health from fellow lefties Mitch Moreland and Prince Fielder.
The Yankees had considered signing Davis to stash at Triple-A in case injury struck Mark Teixeira. The Yankees’ first base security blanket, Greg Bird, needed shoulder surgery and the team said he is lost for the season.
Davis, as it turns out, has had a Kevin Maas arc to his career – an early spate of power that suggested great possibilities, but was not sustainable. In 2012 with the Mets, Davis hit 32 homers. But perhaps more telling were the .227 average and 141 strikeouts.
Since then – perhaps, to some degree, because of the Valley Fever he incurred – Davis has not been the same. Over the last three years, 320 games and 1,043 plate appearances, Davis has just 23 homers to go along with a .222 average.
It may be that he is not in his prime as much as entering the last phases to save his career.
This is the time of year when the top-100 prospect lists come out. It draws interest because of an endless fascination with what comes next. I do think that teams are – in general – doing a better job of identifying and preparing their best prospects, and the publications are doing better at making the list.
But all you need to do is look back at previous Top 100s to see the inexact nature of the endeavor and how foolish – in retrospect – it is to call some prospects untouchable.
As an example, 10 years ago in 2006, the Baseball America top five prospects were: Delmon Young, Justin Upton, Brandon Wood, Jeremy Hermida and Stephen Drew. Only Upton emerged a consistent high-level player; Young and Drew have had some success; Wood and Hermida were highly touted busts.