Once the Orioles and Yovani Gallardo finalize their agreement for the veteran right-hander to join the Baltimore starting rotation, the American League East likely will have completed its heavy lifting for this offseason.
So what do we have? A division that, for the fourth straight season, looks wide open. That features occupants with more questions than answers. You can reasonably project any of the teams, including the once-dominant Yankees, to finish anywhere in the standings.
With concerns and mysteries prevalent, let’s flip the issue on its head: What is each team’s bedrock, the attribute about which it can feel the best? And how do the other teams compare on those strong suits?
Let’s break it down in the order of last year’s division finish.
1. Blue Jays: Best offense.
Easy, right? Toronto scored 891 runs last year, the best single-season output by a club since the 2009 Yankees scored 915. The Yankees placed second in the majors last year with 764 runs, meaning they were closer to the 26th-ranking Reds (640 runs) than the team they trailed directly. The Jays bring back their fearsome lineup headlined by reigning AL MVP Josh Donaldson and potential free agents Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. Even a 15 percent drop-off would keep this offense elite.
Runners-up for best offense: 2. Red Sox; 3. Yankees; 4. Orioles; 5. Rays
2. Yankees: Best organizational culture
Sure, you could put “Best bullpen” here, but the Yankees increased their end-of-game vulnerability along with their upside by trading Adam Warren and Justin Wilson before acquiring Aroldis Chapman. Meanwhile, during this relative dip in the franchise’s recent history, the Yankees have excelled at maximizing their assets and overcoming their disappointments, and that reflects a top-to-bottom cohesiveness. Exhibit A: Didi Gregorius. The Yankees’ front office targeted the shortstop as Derek Jeter’s successor, executed a good trade to get him and hung with him through his early struggles as veterans like Carlos Beltran and Alex Rodriguez aided manager Joe Girardi and his coaches in helping Gregorius develop into an impressive young player.
Runners-up for best organizational culture: 2. Rays; 3. Orioles; 4. Blue Jays; 5. Red Sox
3. Orioles: Best manager.
This marks Buck Showalter’s 18th season leading a major-league club, and he faces a critical test: After elevating the Orioles to impressive heights, can he revive them following a 2015 regression? He couldn’t pull off such a revival with the Rangers or the Diamondbacks in his prior two jobs (he and the Yankees parted ways before such a challenge arose). You bet on Showalter because he seems to have learned so much in Baltimore, site of his longest run, and because his knowledge and enthusiasm still stand out.
Runners-up for best manager: 2. Yankees (Joe Girardi); 3. Blue Jays (John Gibbons); 4. Red Sox (John Farrell); 5. Rays (Kevin Cash)
4. Rays: Best ace.
Even we stats geeks can recognize the value of a starting pitcher who embraces the task of halting a losing streak or cooling off a hot opponent. Chris Archer does that for Tampa Bay, and he gets the edge over Boston’s new front man David Price because Price will be adjusting to a new employer and environment and deserves some time for that transition. Moreover, the Rays possess the most starting rotation depth — the best ace bandage (sorry) — in case Archer goes down with an injury.
Runners-up for best ace: 2. Red Sox (Price); 3. Yankees (Masahiro Tanaka); 4. Blue Jays (Marcus Stroman); 5. Orioles (Gallardo)
5. Red Sox: Best face of the franchise.
The Sawx close their 2016 regular season by hosting the Blue Jays from Sept. 30-Oct. 2, and they know that, regardless of their team’s record, there won’t be an empty seat at Fenway Park. Everyone in Red Sox Nation will be saluting the retiring icon David Ortiz all season long, and that guaranteed revenue stream could give them extra payroll flexibility at the trade deadline, a time at which their president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski excelled while running the Tigers. Boston’s starting rotation, in particular, might need the help.
Runners-up for best faces of the franchise: 2. Blue Jays (Bautista); 3. Orioles (Manny Machado); 4. Rays (Evan Longoria); 5. Yankees (Alex Rodriguez)