SAN FRANCISCO — The talk about Super Bowl 50 has felt endless over two weeks of hype, but there is a football game to be played on Sunday. On paper, this looks like a compelling matchup between the top seeds in either conference.
The Broncos had the No. 1 defense in football this season. The Panthers had the highest-scoring offense. Does Peyton Manning have anything left? Is Cam Newton just too good to be stopped this year?
The Panthers come into the game as a pretty heavy favorite, but the Broncos know how that goes. They were favored over the Seahawks two years ago then got smoked.
Here are the matchups:
Broncos’ pass offense vs. Panthers’ pass defense
This comes down to one thing: Can Manning summon some old magic in his right arm for one last time? Manning had a terrible season, throwing 17 interceptions and just nine touchdowns during the regular season as he battled injuries. Manning has been better in the playoffs, throwing no interceptions in two games. Demaryius Thomas (105 catches,1,304 yards, six TDs) and Emmanuel Sanders (76 catches, 1,135 yards, six TDs) are his favorite targets. Denver finished 14th in passing offense in the regular season and its 23 interceptions were the most thrown in the NFL.
The Panthers can give quarterbacks headaches — ask Carson Palmer. They are good at all three levels of defense. Kawann Short led the team with 11 sacks, but Star Lotulelei also can create pressure up the middle. At linebacker, Thomas Davis had 5.5 sacks this year and also intercepted four passes. Luke Kuechly also had four interceptions. The secondary is led by cornerback Josh Norman, who could cap off his breakout season with a big game Sunday.
Edge: Panthers
Broncos’ run offense vs. Panthers’ run defense
The Panthers are extremely tough to run on. Short and Lotulelei are tough to move and Kuechly is a tackling machine. Carolina only allowed 74 rushing first downs this season, the fourth-lowest total in the league. They also ranked fourth in rushing yards allowed, giving up a paltry 88.4 yards per game on the ground.
The Broncos don’t have a bell cow running back, splitting carries between C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman. They averaged 107.4 yards rushing per game, the 17th most in the league. Anderson and Hillman had five touchdowns each. Hillman led the team in rushing with 863 yards on 207 carries. Denver’s offensive line was ranked as the 17th best in run blocking by Football Outsiders.
Edge: Panthers
Panthers’ pass offense vs. Broncos’ pass defense
This could be the most pivotal matchup in the game. Newton put together a season that should win him NFL MVP on Saturday. He threw for 35 touchdown passes and just 10 interceptions. The Panthers were not explosive in the passing game, ranking 24th in the NFL at 224.3 yards per game, but they can be effective.
Newton’s favorite weapon is tight end Greg Olsen, who had 77 catches for 1,104 yards and seven touchdowns this year. Carolina’s top wide receiver is Ted Ginn Jr., who caught 10 touchdowns from Newton. The Panthers’ offensive line is a good one and has protected Newton well this season.
The Broncos have the best pass defense in the NFL (199.6 yards per game allowed). They led the league with 52 sacks. Outside linebackers Von Miller (11 sacks) and DeMarcus Ware (7.5 sacks) are forces on the outside that Panthers tackles Michael Oher and Mike Remmers will have to deal with.
The Broncos’ secondary is one of the best in the league. Cornerbacks Aqib Talib and Chris Harris can neutralize the Carolina wide receivers. The bigger challenge will be slowing down Olsen. That will fall upon safeties T.J. Ward and Darian Stewart.
Denver gave up just 19 passing touchdowns all season, the third-lowest total in the league. The Broncos slowed down Tom Brady in the AFC Championship game. Now, can they do it to Newton?
Edge: Broncos
Panthers’ run offense vs. Broncos’ run defense
This is where Newton can affect the game in ways no other quarterback can. Newton ran for a team-leading 10 touchdowns this season and his 636 rushing yards were second on the team. The Broncos are going to have to maintain the edges and not let Ware and Miller race to the quarterback, because Newton could break contain if they do.
The Panthers’ run game is not just about Newton. Jonathan Stewart had 989 rushing yards and six touchdowns. Carolina averaged 142.6 yards per game on the ground, No. 2 in the NFL and its 136 rushing first downs are tied for the most in the league.
The Broncos have some run-stoppers with Sylvester Williams, Derek Wolfe and Malik Jackson along the defensive line. Linebackers Danny Trevathan and Brandon Marshall are stout against the run. Broncos’ defensive coordinator Wade Phillips has a huge challenge here, coming up with a game plan to slow down Newton and the running game.
Edge: Even
Special Teams
A Super Bowl can swing on a big special teams play. The best candidate in this game to produce a momentum-swinging play is Panthers returner man Ginn. He has not returned a punt for a touchdown this season, but has four in his career.
Both kickers are very good. Broncos kicker Brandon McManus made 30-of-35 field goal tries this year. Panthers kicker Graham Gano made 30-of-36.
Edge: Panthers
Coaching
Ron Rivera has been a survivor in Carolina, showing that a franchise’s patience can pay off. You don’t go 15-1 in a season without a great job from the head coach. Offensive coordinator Mike Shula has done a phenomenal job this season in bringing out the best from Newton. Panthers defensive coordinator Sean McDermott is a future head coach.
Gary Kubiak has the Broncos back in the Super Bowl in his first season as their head coach. He is the seventh head coach in NFL history to bring his team to a Super Bowl in his first season. The last coach to win a Super Bowl in his first season was Jon Gruden with the Buccaneers in 2002.
Phillips, the Denver defensive coordinator, changed the Broncos from a 4-3 to a 3-4 this year and has gotten great production from his top-ranked defense.
Edge: Panthers
Intangibles
Everything is pointing to Manning retiring after this game, which could give the Broncos an emotional lift and might bring out the best in Manning one last time. Denver has a lot of players with playoff experience and Super Bowl experience from two years ago.
The Panthers have clung to an us-versus-the-world mentality, coming up with perceived disrespect. It’s hard to pull that off when you are Super Bowl favorites and have lost just one game this season.
Edge: Broncos
Post staff picks
Mark Cannizzaro
Broncos 28, Panthers 18
The NFL’s No. 1 defense beats Superman Cam Newton. The Broncos’ offense will not give the ball away to Carolina the way Seattle and Arizona did. Cam and the Carolina offense have not faced a defense as good as Denver’s.
Brian Costello
Broncos 21, Panthers 20
The Broncos’ defense will shut down Cam Newton and the Panthers, and Peyton Manning will finish his career with another ring.
Bart Hubbuch
Broncos 27, Panthers 21
Defense wins championships.
Paul Schwartz
Panthers 27, Broncos 23
Cam Newton runs to the MVP award, using his legs to confound the Broncos and deny a joyful ride off into the sunset for Peyton Manning.
Steve Serby
Broncos 23, Panthers 20
Too much defense and just enough Peyton for a Hollywood ending.
Mike Vaccaro
Broncos 24, Panthers 23
Peyton forever avoids the kiddie table at Manning family holiday gatherings.