Looks as if it’s finally Leonardo DiCaprio’s year to win Best Actor — but don’t bet the mortgage on “The Revenant” to win Best Picture, even if it led with 12 Oscar nominations on Thursday.
That the academy’s many actors love Leo and “The Revenant” was clear by the surprise Best Supporting Actor nomination for Tom Hardy.
But there’s a formidable historical precedent facing Golden Globe winner “The Revenant” and its Oscar-nominated director, Alejandro Iñárritu: He won just last year as the director of “Birdman,” which also copped the Best Picture Oscar.
The problem is that in the Academy Awards’ 88-year history, no director has ever directed back-to-back Best Picture winners.
Back in Hollywood’s Golden Age, John Ford and Joseph L. Mankiewicz won back-to-back Best Director Oscars, but only one of each pair (“How Green Was My Valley” for Ford and “All About Eve” for Mankiewicz) also won Best Picture. Those are forbiddingly long odds against “The Revenant,” which also failed to land a nomination for Best Adapted Screenplay.
Eliminating “The Revenant” and three Best Picture nominees without matching nods for their directors — “Bridge of Spies,” “Brooklyn” and, in the day’s biggest surprise, “The Martian” — leaves us with four titles.
Of those, “Room” probably can’t go the distance without the crucial nod for Best Editing. That leaves a cliffhanger Best Picture race between “Spotlight” and “The Big Short,” possibly leaving an opening for a Best Director win by George Miller of the eighth Best Picture nominee, “Mad Max: Fury Road.”
There was plenty of fury from fans of the two big contenders snubbed for Best Picture nominations — “Carol” and “Straight Outta Compton.” (“Star Wars: The Force Awakens” never had a real chance here.) At least “Carol” landed nods for its stars — Cate Blanchett (Best Actress) and Rooney Mara, who was gerrymandered into Best Supporting Actress — and Best Adapted Screenplay.
“Compton,” which received an ensemble nomination from the Screen Actors Guild, was shamefully relegated to a single nod for Best Original Screenplay. Chris Rock will have plenty of material to work with when he hosts the Oscars next month — all 20 of this year’s acting nominees are white.
Brie Larson of “Room’’ looks like the leader for Best Actress, and Di Caprio has no serious competition for Best Actor — his gonzo performance trumps even his tendency to be way too eager to win. Sylvester Stallone is the favorite for Best Supporting Actor in “Creed,” but watch out for Mark Ruffalo or Christian Bale if “Spotlight” or “The Big Short” wins Best Picture. For Best Supporting Actress, it looks like a horse race among Mara, Rachel McAdams (“Spotlight”) and Alicia Vikander (“The Danish Girl”).
The day’s biggest loser was Quentin Tarantino, whose “The Hateful Eight” was shut out except for Best Supporting Actress (Jennifer Jason Leigh), Cinematography and Best Score, where a nod went to Ennio Morricone for probably the worst work of his long career.