Lead, lead, lead, lead, lead.
Loss, loss, loss, loss, loss.
If this Giants’ season goes down in flames, there will be no problem figuring out what ignited the blaze. Five times, the Giants went down the stretch of a game ahead and ended up behind, the byproduct of many defects, none more alarming or damaging than a truly, and historically, bad fourth-quarter defense.
If the Giants pull ahead Monday night by 10 points late in the game with the Dolphins in Miami, will anyone on the visitors’ sideline feel good about it? Will any of those watching from home, with Giants blue coursing through their veins, consider the game safe and secure? Or will everyone concerned in and around the Giants expect the worst and wait for the inevitable defensive collapse that is sure to follow?
“If the opportunity presents itself, the only way you can get rid of it is to change it,’’ cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie said. “Until you do it … we can talk about it until we’re blue but until we actually do it …”
His voice trailed off, with good reason. Rodgers-Cromartie knows the Giants haven’t done it and, until they do, no one will believe in them, perhaps not even themselves.
In the season opener, the Giants had a 23-13 lead with less than eight minutes remaining in Arlington, Texas, against the Cowboys. It was a 20-10 lead with 12:50 left against the Falcons. Who can forget the 49-42 lead with 1:20 remaining the Giants in New Orleans? There was a 23-17 lead on the then-unbeaten Patriots entering the fourth quarter and a 26-24 lead with 1:47 to go. Most recently, the Giants were ahead of the Jets 20-10 when coach Tom Coughlin eschewed a chip-shot field goal with 8:50 remaining.
According to advanced metrics, the Giants when leading by 10 late in the fourth quarter had a 98.9 percent win probability to beat the Cowboys. It was 97.6 percent against the Falcons, 96.4 against the Saints. When Jets cornerback Buster Skrine was called for pass interference with 10:54 remaining, the Giants, leading by 10 points and with a first down on the Jets’ 12-yard line, had a win probability of 99.4 percent, according to Pro Football Reference. In other words, the Jets had virtually no statistical chance to win the game. But they did.
The NFL is full of fourth-quarter comebacks and horrible losses/unimaginable victories, depending on your rooting, or betting, interest. The Giants, though, are the undisputed kings of the fourth-quarter defensive meltdown. They have allowed league highs in fourth-quarter completed passes (110) and passing yards (1,337), according to Pro Football Focus. Their 10 passing touchdowns allowed? Third-most in the league. Opponents have run the ball 76 times against the Giants in the fourth quarter — just 21st in the NFL — yet the Giants have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards (404) of any team in the fourth quarter. Their 18 missed fourth-quarter tackles is tied for the NFL high.
According to numberFire.com, the Giants have allowed 28.86 Net Expected Points, making them the sixth-worst fourth quarter defense in the NFL. That means the Giants have given up 28.86 more points than expected in the fourth quarter, adjusting for offensive strength of opponent. In the first three quarters, the Giants are 12th best in the league with a NEP of 10.56.
By any and every measure, the Giants on defense are at their very worst in the fourth quarter.
“They can’t stop anyone,’’ Darren Woodson, former NFL safety and current ESPN analyst, told The Post. “If you run a crossing route, there’s a chance you can take one to the house against this team. The tackling is terrible. Absolutely terrible. You get a big play out of a crossing route, especially in the fourth quarter, it speaks to who the team is.’’
In the five dastardly losses from blown leads, the Giants on defense were confronted with 11 fourth-quarter possessions from the opposing offense. The Giants allowed points on nine of those defensive series — and that does not count a 12-play, 91-yard drive by the Falcons that started in the third quarter and cut the Giants lead to 20-17 early in the fourth quarter.
“The common denominator is we need to make one more play,’’ defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo said. “We’re always digging, and always changing, trying something different.
“I’ve always talked to the guys about how we want to be in that situation. And every time on the sideline we’re saying, ‘This is what we’ve been waiting for.’ Look, we feel as bad as anyone about letting the team down.’’
The reasons are plentiful and certainly include clock mismanagement from Eli Manning, a feeble rushing attack and other offensive failings. But it mainly has been a defensive horror show.
Any defense of value has a fourth-quarter pass rush; the Giants have none. Any defense to be trusted can contain the big play over the top; the Giants have exhibited some of the worse safety play in the league. The loss to injury of middle linebacker Jon Beason cost the defense its head, and much of its heart. Jason Pierre-Paul’s July 4 fireworks folly cost him eight games and he has yet to return to form. Spagnuolo has been reluctant to dial up pressure — hoping to protect the lead by trading yards for time — and when he does, those he sends in on blitzes rarely get home.
Rodgers-Cromartie said all the late losing is not in his head.
“I can’t speak for anyone else,’’ Rodgers-Cromartie said. “We take the field and I don’t see guys waiting to mess up. The fight is definitely there, it’s not about the fight. You do get mad and like ‘Oh, we’re here again’ but then quickly you get out of it because you still got to go out there and perform. The only way you can perform is with a clear mind.’’
Those watching closely do not see clear minds. They see impending disaster in how the Giants go about their fourth-quarter defensive business.
“It’s demoralizing,’’ Woodson said of a player’s mindset. “That lack of confidence, you talk about zero confidence to close out. You’re biting your nails the entire fourth quarter knowing that in the past you haven’t been able to do it. I just think this team right now has no confidence going into the fourth quarter. I only see like they’re playing not to lose instead of to win and close games out. That’s a terrible feeling to have for a football player.’’
The Giants have allowed 296 points this season, and 38 percent of them (113) have come in the fourth quarter. Winning time becomes losing time.
“I look at the Giants, they’re so far away from what they were when they had that kind of personnel, when they had [Michael] Strahan, [Justin] Tuck and Osi [Umenyiora], those guys, they’re so far away from that mentality,’’ Woodson said. “I mean, there’s no fear, absolutely no fear from an opposing offense when you play the New York Giants.’’
Especially not in the fourth quarter.