Sometimes the obvious can be almost too obvious. There is danger in shopping routinely in the too-good-to-be-true aisle.
On special this week, in the quarterback section at your fantasy supermarket, is Texans QB Brian Hoyer.
It’s an enticing deal: He gets to face a Saints defense that has been the worst in the NFL this season — a team that has allowed the second-most passing yards, the most passing touchdowns and is tied for the league low in interceptions.
But wait, there’s more: He is available in most leagues, so chances are you can use him as a streaming option if you need. And he comes with a discount price at the daily sites (DraftKings, $5,000; FanDuel $7,100). Plus, he also gets to throw to one of the best wide receivers in the league in DeAndre Hopkins.
It feels a little like a time-share hard sell. Why wouldn’t you want to invest in Hoyer this week. Only thing left to say is: Hurry, act now!
But …
Yeah, there’s a but. But it’s not a big but — we’re not talking Sir Mix-A-Lot big — but it’s a but nonetheless.
First, expect heavy Hoyer usage in daily formats. Even if the Madman had complete confidence, even if we thought Hoyer was going to be the top overall fantasy QB this week, it’s not a good idea to have maximum exposure to heavily owned players who aren’t every-week fantasy stars.
But the bigger reason is the Saints’ defense — yes, the same defense that repeatedly has proven it is incapable of stopping anyone. It’s all about the packing, and just because the Saints will trot out the same players wearing the same uniforms doesn’t mean all the ingredients are the same.
In this case, the Saints have taken defensive coordinator Rob Ryan out of the recipe replaced him with Dennis Allen. Maybe this is like swapping Splenda for Sweet’N Low, but you never know. Maybe Allen brings some real sugar to the unit, at least for one week.
Look, the likelihood is Hoyer will do well. He is solid streaming option in season-long leagues, but don’t bench Blake Bortles, David Carr or even Jameis Winston to play him. You are wise to include him in your mix of daily rosters, just don’t overinvest.
Big weeks
Marcus Mariota QB, Titans
vs. Raiders (DraftKings $5,500/FanDuel $7,000)
Oakland has allowed two or more TD passes in seven of 10 games this season. Gets WR Kendall Wright back, and TE Delanie Walker should benefit as well.
Javorius Allen RB, Ravens
at Browns (DK $4,600/FD $6,300)
Not huge on “Buck” over long haul, but nice matchup here in his first start in place of injured Justin Forsett. Cleveland has given up more than 100 rushing yards in seven of 10 games.
Vincent Jackson WR, Buccaneers
at Colts (DK $4,700/FD $6,400)
Was productive last week in his return from a knee injury. QB Jameis Winston is hot. Mike Evans and Doug Martin will attract defense’s attention. Colts have given up at least one WR touchdown in every game but one.
Jordan Reed TE, Redskins
vs. Giants (DK $5,100/FD $5,800)
Has five TDs in his past four games. Giants have yielded more fantasy points to TEs than any team other than the Saints.
Small weaks
Matt Ryan QB, Falcons
vs. Vikings (DK $6,900/FD 7,900)
Ryan has posted just one 20-plus fantasy outing in standard leagues, and that came all the way back in Week 3. The Vikings are the eighth stingiest against opposing fantasy QBs.
Lamar Miller RB, Dolphins
at Jets (DK $6,100/FD $7,200)
That renewed focus on the running game under interim coach Dan Campbell hasn’t been as reliable on the fantasy front as hoped. Production likely limited to passing game against stiff Jets run defense.
Gary Barnidge TE, Browns
vs. Ravens (DK $4,800/FD $6,500)
Burned the Ravens for 139 yards and a score in Week 5 — his best game of the season. Expect Baltimore to focus on shutting him down, but could benefit WR Travis Benjamin and RB Duke Johnson Jr.
Seattle D/ST, Seahawks
vs. Steelers (DK $3,800/FD $5,200)
Not sure there is a defensive unit in the league that can slow down Steelers with healthy Ben Roethlisberger. Not even Seahawks at home.
Tweet of the week
The Decision
Post fantasy Madman Drew Loftis and Roto Files columnist Jarad Wilk debate whom you should start this week:
Tevin Coleman vs. Latavius Murray
Drew: Coleman — Before a rib injury in Week 2, Coleman was on track to be the Falcons’ primary back. Then Devonta Freeman happened. With Freeman sidelined with a concussion, Coleman gets the reins against a tough Vikings run defense. But I anticipate Minnesota will sell out to stop receiver Julio Jones, leaving Coleman room to run. And he should get whatever goal-line carries develop, which is enough to make me lean Tevin over TD-starved Murray against an even stiffer Titans run defense.
Jarad: Murray — Tennessee and Minnesota virtually are identical against the run, both having allowed 1,101 rushing yards with Minnesota allowing 4.3 yards per carry and the Titans allowing 4.0. But here’s what makes Murray more attractive: The Vikes have allowed just one rushing TD since their Week 5 bye, and the Titans have allowed six since their Week 4 bye. Murray has been hit-or-miss, but he should have a solid day against a defense that has allowed more than 100 yards rushing to teams in every home game this year.
Last week: Drew 4 (Travis Kelce — 46 receiving yards); Jarad 3 (Jason Witten — 36 receiving yards)
Season series: Drew leads, 7-4